Russian President Vladimir Putin insists that his military operation in Ukraine is proceeding as planned, yet on the battlefield, numerous issues persist, notably logistical challenges. The Russian military operation in Ukraine is nearing its second week, with no immediate signs of a ceasefire to stop the bloodshed.
British news network "Sky News" reported on Tuesday that various reports indicate Russian forces are facing significant logistical problems, alongside low morale, after encountering fierce resistance from Ukrainians. The Kremlin asserts that it is prepared to halt its offensive at any moment, provided Kyiv responds to a list of demands, which includes recognizing Crimea's annexation and acknowledging the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics.
This marks Russia's clearest statement of conditions for ending the war. So, is Putin contemplating a strategy for Russia's exit from Ukraine? Is the military campaign stalled? Conflict and security expert Chris Tuck notes, it is evident that "the war waged by the Russians has not unfolded as they anticipated."
The British expert considers the Russian performance "poor" in the war, as this was supposed to be a rapid and decisive operation, while the reality on the ground has deviated from their expectations for which they were unprepared. He stated, "They were not ready in terms of logistics, command and control, joint war arrangements, or the scale of fighting they were required to engage in." He added, "Contrary to what Putin argues, that everything is proceeding according to plan, it is clearly not the case."
So, what are Putin's options? Tuck, a researcher in war termination studies, says Putin currently has three options after failing to quickly seize control of Ukraine.
**Option One: Escalate Military Action**
This could involve the potential use of chemical or nuclear weapons, citing factors indicating such a possibility, such as the increasing use of firepower. However, he discounts the use of chemical or nuclear weapons, attributing this to Putin's assertion that Russians and Ukrainians are "one people."
**Option Two: Anaconda Plan**
Tuck suggests that Putin is currently pursuing a "stretch" strategy by conducting systematic military operations to encircle key resistance centers, hoping to break Ukrainian morale. He views this method as a type of "Anaconda strategy," referring to a military plan devised during the American Civil War, which involves a blockade likened to an anaconda that constricts its victims.
**Option Three: Negotiate a Peace Agreement**
Tuck states that reaching a peace agreement through negotiation is unlikely at this stage, "because Putin has politically tied himself so deeply to the success of this operation." The expert adds that accepting anything less than his full demands would represent "a significant blow to his prestige."
