The world is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and its developments, highlighted by President Vladimir Putin's threats of nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, Lebanese officials are embroiled in their disagreements, struggling to find ways to evacuate Lebanese students from the war zone. This situation has spurred some businessmen and election candidates to volunteer to assist in this task, in coordination and cooperation with the Lebanese and International Red Cross, under the auspices of Interior Minister Bassam Al-Mawlawi, amid pressure from the families of students left in Ukraine.
Following the external crisis of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, internal issues have again become a battleground among prominent political forces, particularly between Prime Minister Najib Mikati and the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Basil, and through him, President Michel Aoun. This conflict revolves around the recovery plan that the Prime Minister is working on with French encouragement, especially the electricity plan, which Basil clings to despite its long-standing failures during its time under the Free Patriotic Movement.
Sources noted that MP Basil is stirring up certain issues to unsettle the Prime Minister, pushing him to align with some plans or to force his resignation to disrupt the parliamentary elections—something the newspaper "Al-Liwaa," closely tied to Mikati, suggests as polling results do not bode well for him due to the performance of the presidential team, with Basil playing the maestro role for the past ten years.
The sources identified the main topics of disagreement between Mikati and Basil: the economic recovery plan, including the electricity plan, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' statement regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Basil attempted to influence the core lines of the recovery plan through President Aoun's advisor, Charbel Qardahi, who is also Basil's advisor, particularly regarding structural reforms in the energy ministry and defining financial loss rates.
When Mikati refused to allow anyone other than the relevant ministers to draw up the plan, Basil launched a fierce campaign against the ministerial committee that included representatives of the Free Patriotic Movement and thus the President. He accused Mikati of not keeping President Aoun informed about the plan's content, which contradicts the reality. Basil supplemented his campaign with fabricated allegations against the governor of the central bank, Riad Salameh, pursued by judges loyal to his faction.
The Prime Minister proposed a series of amendments to the electricity plan after discovering Basil's and his advisors' fingerprints on some of its details, aiming to align it with the demands for reviving the sector away from previous failed plans. He ruled out establishing a power plant in the town of Salata, which Basil insists on including in the plan. In response, Basil revived the case against Salameh to apply pressure on the Prime Minister, who refuses to dismiss the governor, adhering to the theory of "no change of officers during wartime." Basil also included the case against Internal Security Forces Director General Major General Imad Osman through Judge Ghada Aoun.
In light of Mikati's refusal to cave to Basil's pressures and to disrupt the fabricated allegations, he insisted on the proposed amendments to the electricity plan concurrently with negotiations with Siemens, the German company that pledged to construct the plants within 18 months. Meanwhile, Minister of Energy Walid Fayad's plan, a replica of his predecessors', would take three years to implement. The negotiations with Electricité de France aim to secure the best possible offers regarding financing and industrial development, which led to the delay of the plan's approval in the Cabinet until after the elections, settling for a principle approval due to President Aoun's refusal to proceed with it, despite it including the establishment of a plant in Salata that Basil insists on.
As soon as Basil learned of Mikati's negotiations with Siemens, he hurried to Germany with former Energy Minister Cesar Abi Khalil to negotiate with Siemens officials, undermining the Prime Minister's negotiations to retain control over the electricity file, which has become a cash cow.
President Aoun is concerned about Hezbollah and stated in an interview with "Asas" that isolating Hezbollah means civil war, referring to the party's positive stance in the negotiations regarding maritime boundary demarcation with Israel. He revealed for the first time that he left the government to handle this file and would support whatever decision is reached based on negotiation outcomes and the official line that would be adopted.
In response to the accusations of "high treason" for abandoning Line 29 and backing Line 23, Aoun remarked, "Line 29 is considered a negotiation line, created in Lebanon and not recognized internationally."
In a subtle counter to President Aoun's remarks, Mohammad Raad, the head of the Loyalty to Resistance Bloc, stated during a memorial event in Kfourfila: "The American mediator in gas exploration came to Lebanon to play the role of the fox in dividing the pie among the disputants," adding, "We will keep our gas buried in our waters until we can prevent Israel from touching a drop of our water. Let the enemy and those who communicate with them—mediator or not—know that the Israeli will not be able to explore gas in our vicinity unless we explore our gas and invest it as we wish, and ‘let them fill the sea.’"
Regarding the elections, former Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi tweeted his support for the stance of Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Deryan calling for participation in the elections, stating: "No despair or frustration, and no abstaining from action in our dictionary." The Kataeb Party held an election celebration at the Ghazir Stadium (Jounieh) attended by party leader Samy Gemayel, party candidate Selim El-Sayegh, and resigned MP Nadim Gemayel, with El-Sayegh stating: "Our stadium is the stadium of freedom, and freedom carries the spirit of change."
In the Koura district, three Orthodox MPs with a significant Maronite and Sunni presence will compete among several lists, including an opposition list comprising the Kataeb Party and resigned MP Michel Moawad, along with the "North with Us" list that names its three candidates for Koura: Simon Bashawati, Jihad Farah, and Ruben Taleb. A third list titled the Koura Revolution is also in the process of formation.
In the Batroun district, there will be two lists, one for the Free Patriotic Movement, likely led by Gebran Basil, and the second for the Marada Party, headed by MP Tony Franjieh, while the Syrian Social Nationalist Party appears to be wavering or divided. The Sunni vote in this district is unlikely to favor Basil as it did in the previous elections when the president, Saad Hariri, referred to him as "our friend Gebran."
In any case, everyone is moving as if the elections will take place tomorrow.
