Beirut sources familiar with the preparations for the parliamentary elections in the Beirut II district (11 seats, heavily Sunni) report that the political forces involved are close to finalizing the names of their candidates to prepare for registration with the Ministry of Interior and Municipalities before the deadline on April 4. Those who are unable to join the lists will exit the electoral race. The sources confirmed to "Asharq Al-Awsat" that the competition will likely be among five lists, provided that reformist groups linked to the civil movement unite into a single list; otherwise, the number of lists may increase.
According to the Beirut sources, most lists will likely be incomplete, except for the one being formed by former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and another led by MP Fouad Makhzoumi. They are set to confront two incomplete lists: one led by the "Shiite duo" and another by the "Islamic Charity Projects Association" (Ahbash), with the possibility of one or more additional lists joining these under the banner of the civil movement.
The same sources did not rule out the emergence of a new list, potentially made up of members from the "Islamic Group" and Nehmeh Badr, president of the Ansar Football Club, especially if Siniora fails to reach an agreement with the leadership of the Islamic Group through its candidate, former MP Imad al-Hout. Discussions between Siniora and Badr continue regarding the latter's potential inclusion in Siniora's list, although no significant progress has been made so far.
On the latest developments regarding Siniora's efforts to form a complete list to fill the Sunni street vacuum caused by the abstention of Future Movement leader Saad Hariri from running, a meeting took place out of the spotlight between Siniora and Hariri's advisers, former MP Ghattas Khoury and Hani Hammoud. "Asharq Al-Awsat" learned from Beirut sources that the meeting was at Hariri's request, as he currently resides in Abu Dhabi, and it aimed to convey Hariri's viewpoint to dispel rumors that some Future officials are behind media and political campaigns targeting Siniora for stepping outside Hariri's political influence.
The meeting clarified that claims circulating in the Beirut street suggesting Future officials are adhering to Hariri's decision to abstain from running while secretly promoting other candidates were unfounded. Khoury and Hammoud informed Siniora that Hariri remains neutral, not requesting that his supporters boycott the elections. They stated that Hariri is neither for nor against Siniora's efforts to form a list in Beirut II, and anyone running under the Future Movement's name would need to resign, as would any Blue Movement members wishing to work in the electoral machinery.
The same sources emphasized that Hariri does not offer cover for those wishing to run in the elections; they must take personal responsibility for their decisions, which Siniora was informed of. The discussions aimed to resolve any disagreements on electoral strategies, while Siniora continues consultations in preparation for the birth of the electoral list he personally supports.
As the race intensifies to secure electoral seats amidst expectations of low voter turnout, particularly within the Sunni community, Siniora is working to mobilize participation in the elections. "Asharq Al-Awsat" learned that "Hezbollah," in coordination with the Amal Movement, is not planning to run with a complete list of 11 candidates—including 6 Sunnis, 2 Shiites, a Druze, and an Orthodox, as well as an Evangelical candidate.
It is confirmed that the list backed by the "Shiite duo" could comprise 8 candidates: 2 Shiites, 4 Sunnis, one Druze, and one Evangelical, assuming they forgo an Orthodox candidate to avoid political complications with the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, especially with MP Asaad Harbadan's nomination of former labor union president Ghassan Ghosn against another candidate supported by the party's leadership in Roushie.
It is rumored that the "Shiite duo" may reduce its Sunni candidates from four to three, considering not cooperating with a candidate from the Ahbash or someone perceived to be aligned with them. This is likely to avoid jeopardizing their allied relationship with the Islamic Charity Projects Association, which intends to run independently but will operate collaboratively behind the scenes to bolster their mutual electoral support.
The "Shiite duo" is expected to include MPs Amin Sherri (Hezbollah), Mohammad Khawaja (Amal), and Edgar Traboulsi (the Free Patriotic Movement), along with Nsib al-Johari (Democratic Party led by MP Talal Arslan). It is rumored that they may collaborate with Sunni candidates such as Moatasem Fawzi Adham, Sherine Adnan Arqaji, and Maya Saad al-Din Shatila, despite previously leaning towards working with prominent Sunni figures who opted out of running to avoid American sanctions imposed on Hezbollah, on the grounds that they would be running on its list.
The insistence of the "Shiite duo," particularly "Hezbollah," on including Sunni candidates is seen as a response to campaigns targeting it, particularly from MP Makhzoumi, who argued that he is reaching out to the Sunni community and that Hezbollah is relying on its weapons in the elections. Nonetheless, the party, in agreement with Amal, is refraining from working with Sunni figures that could provoke or challenge the Sunni street, explaining its reluctance to associate with known faces closely aligned with the party and belonging to Hezbollah-backed resistance groups.
Thus, the "Shiite duo" is betting on its capacity to increase its electoral yields to secure at least one Sunni candidate's victory on its list, sending a message that it maintains a presence in the Sunni street in direct response to the campaigns targeting it. Meanwhile, Makhzoumi is close to forming a complete list in cooperation with candidates Abdul Latif Saad al-Din Aytani, Karim Fouad Shbeqlou, Zeina Majdalani, Zeina Mundhir, Lina Hamdan, Al-Fateh al-Subai, and retired General Dala Rahbani, who had previously run for the Evangelical seat on his list in prior elections.
Until the list formation in Beirut II is finalized, whether complete or incomplete, Siniora faces the challenge of encouraging the Sunni street to actively participate in voting, contrary to initial estimates that indicate significant concerns about engaging voters given Hariri's abstention from the elections.
