Lebanon

Pressure on Mikati's Government and Treasury Delegation in the Grand Serail

Pressure on Mikati's Government and Treasury Delegation in the Grand Serail

The newspaper "Al-Liwaa" reported that the 2022 budget has found its way to the Parliament with President Michel Aoun signing the budget law project and referring it by decree to the Parliament to proceed to the Finance and Budget Committee and other committees before inviting the Parliament to discuss and approve it. However, no date has been set for a cabinet session to approve necessary measures and resume discussions on the electricity plan, which remains a priority. Preparations are underway to launch financing negotiations with the World Bank after the government meets all necessary conditions. Meanwhile, discussions on humanitarian assistance and projects are taking place at the French Foreign Ministry, involving Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, who is preparing to travel to Beirut, and his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah. Both ministers emphasized France and Saudi Arabia's commitment to funding some activities of international NGOs working in relief efforts in Lebanon.

Informed political sources expressed to "Al-Liwaa" their belief that the effects of the Foreign Ministry's statement regarding the Russian war in Ukraine have ended and highlighted the focus on addressing the impacts of ongoing events on Lebanon's situation, particularly concerning food security. The timeline for the next cabinet session remains unclear, and the same sources noted that overcoming this statement is essential to facilitate the cabinet's work, which experienced disruption in its previous session due to it.

Moreover, Lebanon's official agenda will involve visits from several foreign officials this week, while it is still uncertain when the American mediator in the border demarcation file, Amos Hochstein, will visit. Meanwhile, the timing of the visit from the US Treasury delegation, which included the First Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury and Counter-Terrorism Officer Paul Heren, and his deputy Erik Meyer, to meet with Prime Minister Mikati in the presence of US Ambassador Dorothy Shea has raised questions, especially given the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war.

Internally, pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Najib Mikati's government, particularly regarding the electricity plan that has received preliminary approval. Deputy Gebran Bassil insists on including a plant in Selita, which Mikati does not see as a priority at this time. Additionally, the National Liberal Movement seeks to evade the establishment of an electricity regulatory authority, a demand strongly held by both the Amal Movement and the Progressive Socialist Party.

The fallout from Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib's statement continues, which the "Shia Duo" still considers as if it never existed. Complicating matters further is the investigative actions of Mount Lebanon Prosecutor Ghada Aoun, who is pursuing investigations outside the usual frameworks concerning the Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon and his brother, through summonses issued to heads of bank boards.

As a result, a well-informed source ruled out the possibility of a cabinet session this week to avoid problems between Mikati and the presidential team. With no new cabinet session likely this week, and while scheduling meetings for the Finance and Budget Committee to examine the 2022 budget law, a delegation from the International Monetary Fund and the US Treasury arrived in Beirut yesterday and immediately began their meetings. The economic repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war are affecting Lebanon's living conditions, compounded by price manipulation during each local or external crisis.

In another context, President Nabih Berri met with the head of the IMF mission to Lebanon, Ernesto Ramirez, who arrived in Beirut yesterday afternoon. They discussed the progress of negotiations between Lebanon and the IMF, the legislation completed by the Parliament, and upcoming legislation such as the Capital Control Law, emphasizing the necessity to protect depositors' rights as a top priority.

Meanwhile, the US Treasury delegation, which included Paul Heren and Erik Meyer, also visited Prime Minister Mikati at the Grand Serail. The meeting focused on cooperation between Lebanon and the United States, and the delegation left without making statements. Both delegations are set to visit President Michel Aoun today, with the IMF delegation also scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Mikati.

The IMF delegation plans to stay for only three days unless an extension is decided, according to Samir Daher, an advisor to the Prime Minister for economic affairs. He clarified that the visit's purpose is to establish rapport between the teams and agree on continuing negotiations since the Lebanese team had previously presented a draft plan and its proposals on various topics to the IMF delegation, which studied them over the past two weeks and will communicate its observations.

Regarding the impacts of the war in Ukraine, Lebanese citizens are witnessing rising prices of oil, wheat, and grains, along with other products from Ukraine or Russia, while the state, particularly the Ministry of Economy, has been absent in monitoring and following up on importers. The Fuel Station Owners Syndicate indicated that fuel stations always pay the price of rising global oil prices. Recently, as global oil prices increased, some fuel companies have been reluctant to deliver fuel while others are delivering very limited quantities, not sufficient to meet market demands. The syndicate noted that oil companies are withholding deliveries to profit weekly from increases in the price schedule released every Tuesday, creating a fuel shortage in the markets.

The Minister of Economy, Amin Salameh, reassured President Berri regarding the wheat issue, a matter of food security, stating that the ministry is addressing it and ensuring there will be no bread or wheat shortages. It was noted that security agencies recently discovered large quantities of stored and monopolized wheat.

Political efforts continue to address reactions to the Foreign Ministry's statement condemning the "Russian invasion of Ukraine." While efforts by Prime Minister Najib Mikati seem to have eased tensions, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Lebanon, Igor Ostash, stated that the aggression Russia exercises against his country is comprehensive, not limited, describing Russian President Vladimir Putin as a "criminal" and acknowledging that the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian army against the military attack was unexpected.

In terms of elections, the number of candidates who submitted official applications to the Ministry of Interior has reached 18 across ten districts, although the deadline for nominations ends on March 15, with the withdrawal deadline on March 30. It is expected that lists will be finalized and officially registered by April 4. Resigned MP Nadim Gemayel announced his continued confrontation against the Iranian project, and sources from the Ministry of Interior confirmed its readiness and that preparations are in full swing.

Interior and Municipalities Minister Bassam Mawlawi reported that he discussed with the Grand Mufti the election preparations and the Ministry's readiness to conduct the elections, a constitutional requirement awaited by the Lebanese for more than two to three years. He stated that the government has committed to conducting the elections in its ministerial statement and that preparations have been completed logistically, administratively, and financially.

Finally, in the first stance from Hezbollah regarding maritime border demarcation, Deputy Mohammad Raad stated that the American mediator arrived in Lebanon recently to act as a fox in dividing the spoils among opponents in gas exploration negotiations. He emphasized that they will keep the gas buried in Lebanese waters until they can prevent Israel from accessing it.

Prosecutor Ghada Aoun has also entered the investigation into the Governor of the Central Bank, Riad Salameh, pursuing testimonies from bank executives, while Slemein Safeer visited Prime Minister Mikati’s office as part of Association discussions.

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