Al-Liwaa reported: Between March and April, and what can be leveraged from mid-May, the presidency aims to implement what it couldn’t achieve over the past five and a half years. This was noted by ministerial sources who participated in the Cabinet session held yesterday afternoon in Baabda, where President Michel Aoun insisted on passing the "mega center" at any cost and tasked the Council for Development and Reconstruction to prepare a detailed study on the importance of the Bisri dam project. He also mandated Energy Minister Walid Fayyad to renegotiate with the World Bank to revive the related loan, in addition to canceling the notifications on the properties impacted by Decree No. 5821/1966 known as "Ikoshahr," treating it as if it never existed.
It was striking to hear President Aoun's comments about the accuracy of the financial situation, which "does not allow any delay," as he reinforced his strict stance, stating that "the IMF delegation highlighted the need to approve the recovery plan as soon as possible" during its visit to Lebanon. Political sources considered that President Aoun's insistence on having the mega center for the upcoming parliamentary elections, alongside the demand from head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, despite the limited time and difficulty in securing funds and necessary technical equipment, in addition to opposition from some political parties, raises concerns that there might be a hidden agenda to postpone this crucial event for a specified period.
The sources pointed out that despite all public affirmations emphasizing the commitment to hold the parliamentary elections in front of Lebanese representatives from abroad, the striking insistence by the presidential team to establish the mega center in this manner—after all previous attempts to amend the electoral law failed—provides additional evidence that the main goal is either to cancel the elections or postpone them for a certain duration under now commonly heard pretexts: the alleged inability of citizens from remote areas to travel due to the increased fuel prices and high transportation costs, or the inability to provide electricity to all polling stations, given the scarcity of electrical supply in all Lebanese regions.
The sources indicated that there is an increasingly apparent attempt by the presidency, both the president and the movement, to delay the upcoming parliamentary elections, a move that no longer supports official denials, especially after pre-election polling showcased a noticeable decline in public support for the movement's candidates across most electoral districts due to general dissatisfaction with the presidential team's dismal performance over the years and the weak electoral alliances with the movement's rivals, especially with AMAL Movement due to ongoing disputes with them. Additionally, a broad segment of expatriates is leaning towards voting for the movement's opponents in the majority of electoral districts, including Batroun and the surrounding areas, where Bassil will personally run for election.
The sources noted that to avoid a loss for the Free Patriotic Movement in the contested districts, serious discussions have begun behind closed doors about the proposal to postpone the next parliamentary elections until September. As for the rationale behind this timeline, based on a currently circulating narrow scenario, it would be challenging to form a new government during the interim leading up to the presidential elections scheduled for October if the parliamentary elections were held on time on May 15, as this period is relatively short. To prevent a power vacuum for any urgent reason, especially with an outgoing government in place, it would be advisable to postpone the parliamentary elections until September. During this period, the mega center could be established, all necessary preparations completed, and the consequences of the Iranian nuclear deal and the ongoing war in Ukraine on Lebanon and the region observed.
According to the mentioned sources, implementing this scenario, while satisfying the presidential team, faces challenges. Most parties, while implicitly preferring to delay the upcoming parliamentary elections out of fear of discouraging results, avoid expressing this desire publicly to prevent stirring domestic public opinion or incurring the wrath of the international community. Ministerial sources reported that several topics were brought up outside of the agenda; only Prime Minister Mikati raised the issue of Lebanon's stance on the war between Russia and Ukraine, with no ministerial interventions on this matter, despite a leaked intervention from Labor Minister Mustafa Berham questioning why Lebanon's position on the conflict appears to be one-sided, only causing harm to its complicated situation, and whether this stance deserves discussion in the Cabinet to be correctly articulated, especially since objections were raised regarding the actions of the former Foreign Minister and this was being repeated in the UN voting without any discussion in Cabinet, posing whether as a Cabinet we are not all concerned with taking political positions towards various stances.
The ministerial sources denied this, stating that only Prime Minister Mikati spoke on the matter. Information indicated that the topic of executing the memo concerning social assistance was addressed by several ministers, with the Minister of Social Affairs noting a confusion in its implementation, while the Minister of Labor discussed that some employees live far from their workplace and cannot apply the rules to everyone. The issue regarding raising the minimum salary for private sector employees was also raised, amounting to a 3 million and 300 thousand LBP increase. Regarding the memo, the Finance Minister clarified the costs and mentioned that there is no objection to including social assistance for those who work on specific days.
Additionally, the Minister of Justice asked the Education Minister about the $180 allocated to teachers, to which Minister Halabi replied it would be a one-time payment. The Minister of Industry spoke about food security, and a committee was formed under the leadership of the Minister of Economy. The Minister of Displaced Affairs presented his visit to Syria, with discussions on the outcomes planned for the next governmental session. On the issue of the UN agreement with the US, the Defense Minister explained its circumstances, addressing ministers' inquiries regarding the intended use of weapons, indicating that ministers from Hezbollah and AMAL expressed objections only concerning the need to maintain state sovereignty in distributing aids to its security forces as per its discretion. The Defense Minister affirmed that there would be no concessions on sovereignty and provided clarifications.
Regarding the Bisri dam file, there was a question for a representative from the Council for Development and Reconstruction about what can be done after the World Bank halted the loan and noting that funds were spent, part of which went to contractors. It was decided to assign the council to conduct a study to determine needs. For the "Ikoshahr" project, which the President supports, it was decided to remove notifications from properties extending from Khalde to Dbayeh, allowing property owners to benefit from their assets that have been frozen for many years; here the Minister of Displaced Affairs said it could create issues in the circular and Arab highways.
Additionally, regarding the mega center, Interior and Municipalities Minister Bassam Mawlawi explained the prepared study, stating that the mega center is a reform step agreed upon by all, but its adoption requires securing logistical provisions, namely segmenting the centers into internal rooms corresponding to the projected number of registrants and offices needed for the specific polling committees. Thirty servers for each center would require three months for importation, and connecting each large polling center to the Ogero network to link it with all polling committees in the regions via fiber optics, as well as conducting internal connections within the center to link the committees with an internal network and securing the necessary voting equipment and offices for polling committees such as televisions, print machines, and computers.
He noted that time is pressing, especially since the elections are scheduled after the Eid al-Fitr and Easter holidays, and the major polling centers must be made available to the ministry for three months from the date of the law's issuance. He also spoke about the need to request a treasury advance to finalize it without allocated funds. He stated he cannot bear the delay of elections and revealed that Minister Berham is in favor of the mega center and conducting elections on schedule, while Minister Halabi expressed reservations. Prime Minister Mikati noted that there is enthusiasm for voting and proposed forming a small committee comprising ministers of interior, finance, justice, foreign affairs, culture, education, and communications, which later included the tourism minister to study the matter, promising a report would be submitted the following Tuesday after today’s meeting.
President Aoun objected to the committee not including technicians, especially since there is a technical aspect to the file. Mikati replied that based on the President's request, they could enlist anyone he deems fit, and experts could join it. The upcoming Council session may be moved from the Grand Serail to Baabda. The Council also decided to merge the tourism office in Paris, with plans to evaluate the status of its employees. It approved an advance of 1 billion and 200 million for the High Relief Commission to repatriate Lebanese from Ukraine. Furthermore, the Cabinet approved a proposed law from the Ministry of Interior to postpone municipal and optional elections for a full year due to unpreparedness in human and financial resources, proposing to hold them on May 31, 2023, making it subject to a decision from the Parliament.
An emergency committee was established to address food security issues and protect markets from monopolistic practices and price manipulation, consisting of ministers from economy, industry, agriculture, defense, finance, and culture, after President Aoun and Prime Minister Mikati, along with Economy Minister Amin Salam, highlighted the priority of food security risks amid the war in Ukraine, particularly regarding securing wheat and other essentials.
It was learned that the Economy Minister would announce a decision early next week to halt export permits for several vital raw materials exported by Lebanon, to allow for the possibility of self-sufficiency and to protect local consumption. However, tensions returned to the government regarding the new official position of Lebanon voting alongside the UN General Assembly decision concerning the cessation of the Russian war on Ukraine. Labor Minister Mustafa Berham raised the issue and delivered a remark questioning why Lebanon's stance appears consistently biased and damaging to its complex situation, and whether such position should be debated in the Cabinet for proper expression, particularly since objections had previously been raised against the former Foreign Minister's actions, now being repeated in the UN vote without discussion.
Mikati responded, saying they have previously stated that Russia is not the target of the statement. "We are against any international intervention in any state, regardless of the intervention," he emphasized.
Mikati also discussed the reasons why Lebanon took a stance regarding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, explaining that it is based on a historical narrative of fundamental positions Lebanon adopted condemning any country that invades a neighboring state, while maintaining the need to establish better relations with Russia. A discussion ensued regarding the Ministry of Interior’s study on establishing mega polling centers, and Minister Mawlawi expressed his opposition to delaying the elections, emphasizing that implementing the mega center would require time and money that is currently unavailable. Mawlawi underscored that he is not engaging in politics but expressing what can be done, clarifying that he communicated with Ogero and indicated that the mega center requires equipment from abroad and the establishment of fiber optics for internet service.
After thorough discussion on the Ministry of Interior’s report and a split among ministers concerning it, the Cabinet decided to form a ministerial committee comprising the ministers of interior, justice, education, culture, finance, tourism, and communications to study the feasibility of establishing mega polling centers and report their findings by Tuesday at the latest, before presenting the matter at the next Cabinet meeting. The committee may enlist anyone they deem appropriate in preparing their report.
The interim Minister of Information, Abbas Halabi, denied that the formation of the committee and the likely approval of the mega center is intended for delaying parliamentary elections, confirming that the reason is solely legal and logistical, needing study, especially with simpler, less costly alternatives available. He clarified that there are three levels for examining the issue: the legal and legislative level, the financial level, and the logistical level, which will be reviewed by the committee.
Additionally, the Cabinet discussed the possibility of re-establishing communication with the World Bank to revive the Bisri dam project and secure funding from the canceled loan valued at $195 million. Ministers affiliated with AMAL and Hezbollah expressed objections to the proposed security agreement with the United States concerning support to security and military agencies, only regarding the necessity of preserving the state's sovereignty in its discretion to distribute assistance to its security forces. However, the provision was approved, determining that the government would decide on how to utilize such assistance within security bodies rather than facilitating its direct provision from the US to specific entities.
There was also discussion on the renewable energy item, where some ministers insisted it should fall under Law 462 concerning energy sector regulation and the electricity plan, not as a separate issue. Moreover, President Aoun requested the removal of notifications on the properties associated with the "Hokushar" project concerning highways from Khalde to Dbayeh.
**Combatting Monopoly with Force**
Minister Salam vowed to pursue anyone engaging in monopolistic practices or manipulating food security starting Monday, stating that intensive meetings would occur to reach essential decisions specifically related to export permits. Noting that many countries abroad have adopted export bans on essential materials, he emphasized the need to protect local consumption and the quantities existing in Lebanon. He continued, "The committee will play a significant role in tackling monopoly issues, underlining that the Ministry of Defense’s participation in this committee is crucial. Monopoly and price manipulation are red lines for this committee, with ministries of industry, agriculture, economy, and defense all vigilant against factories, stores, or any relevant entities. There will be no leniency; meddling with food security is intolerable, and the involvement of the Defense Ministry signifies that we will apply maximum measures against monopolization while hoping not to resort to escalation."
The Cabinet is set to meet again next Thursday.
**The Russian-Ukrainian Crisis**
On the political front regarding the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, President Aoun's Russian Advisor, Amel Abu Zeid, met with Russia's personal representative in the Middle East and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov. The meeting was characterized as "cordial," discussing all aspects related to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and its ramifications on the international level, particularly in the Middle East. A lengthy dialogue ensued regarding Lebanon's stance on the crisis between Russia and Ukraine.
President Aoun stated to the European Union delegation led by Ambassador Ralph Tarraf that returning to the negotiation option is the best solution to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, noting that peaceful means will prevent bloodshed and avert repercussions that could exacerbate conflicts between countries in general and neighboring nations in particular. He affirmed that Lebanon has always been, and still is, against any acts of war or aggression directed against any free and independent state, emphasizing the importance of dialogue and solidarity among peoples and states during wars and crises.
"We are against any war acts aimed at any free and independent state, considering it an assault on sovereignty and independence as well as on the safe people," he concluded. Tarraf expressed his gratitude to President Aoun for Lebanon's position in the UN General Assembly regarding the crisis in Ukraine, noting that Lebanon joined 140 other states in condemning the unjustified Russian aggression that violated international laws and threatened security and stability in Europe.
**Alouch: The First Resignation from "Future"**
In electoral developments, the "Future Movement" announced in a statement that its Deputy Chairman, Dr. Mustafa Alouch, resigned from the movement during a call with President Saad Hariri. The President decided to accept the resignation and referred the decision to the general secretariat for implementation. This releases Dr. Alouch from any organizational obligations and grants him full rights according to regulations to choose the path he deems appropriate, whether in elections or otherwise, wishing him success and appreciating his positions and the missions he held within the movement over the past years.
This marks the first resignation of a high-ranking official from the movement, seemingly aiming to enter the parliamentary elections. Additionally, several deputies from the bloc plan to run, including MP Mohammed Al-Qaraawi from Western Bekaa, while others are weighing their options, with some likely to announce their candidacies, although their conditions with allies, particularly the Progressive Socialist Party, prohibit alliances with the Lebanese Forces.
This has caused significant unrest in the regions where they are present and has obstructed certain electoral nominations, alliances, and calculations. Following Alouch's position, strong criticisms were issued against him to the point of betrayal accusations, prompting the "Future Movement" to release a statement urging "supporters and some party members and activists on social media" to refrain from using language of betrayal and accusations of respected figures, regardless of political differences.
On this occasion, the movement lauded the expressions of solidarity shown by activists with President Hariri and the organizational notices issued by the movement.
When asked about the reasons for this step and what would follow, he responded via a phone call with Al-Liwaa, stating, "At the moment, silence speaks louder than words until the crisis, which must take diverse forms, concludes. God willing, I will have a position at the beginning of next week wherein I will explain all the reasons that led to this, thus the steps that will follow."
This development occurs amidst widespread consultations initiated by President Fouad Al-Saniora to regain the initiative with Islamic figures in Beirut and Tripoli, focusing on two points: the first involves encouraging Sunni voters, while the second involves taking the initiative to run for election. According to his sources, he encourages both points to prevent the Islamic arena from being subject to opportunists or influences from other currents, especially those aligned with Iranian authority.
According to visitors, President Al-Saniora has not yet definitively resolved the issue of his candidacy, where and how, but his main concern is to prevent a vacuum in the Islamic arena, both in Beirut and Tripoli.
**Sanctions on Two Hezbollah Members**
In the context of U.S. Treasury measures against Hezbollah, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on financers of Hezbollah in Guinea. It stated, "We continue to expose businessmen funding Hezbollah's destabilizing activities." The sanctioned individuals, Ali Saadeh and Ibrahim Taha, were cited for their support of Hezbollah.
The U.S. Department of State added, "Hezbollah has developed a global network of financiers, supporters, donors, and facilitators, enabling the group to continuously threaten Lebanon's and the broader region's security, stability, and prosperity. The financial activities of those designated today not only support the group’s malign activities but also undermine the commercial sector and the rule of law in the countries where their financial activities occur. The United States will continue to expose individuals such as those designated today who support Hezbollah's destabilizing activities."
The designations are made under Executive Order 13224, as amended, targeting terrorists and leaders of terrorist organizations as well as those who provide support to terrorists or terrorist activities. For more information about today’s action, please refer to the Treasury Department’s press release.
