The newspaper "Al-Diyar" reported: As expected, the effects of the political-judicial confrontation are negatively reflecting on the monetary and financial situation in the country, with only the people bearing the cost of this open conflict between a political authority that is shedding its responsibilities and seeking a "scapegoat" to bear the blame for its failures and collusions over the years with the banking system and the central bank. Today, a political team is conducting its electoral battle targeting the central bank and the Association of Banks, which bear a significant portion of the blame for the collapse, but they are not the only culprits. The timing of reopening the files is "suspicious," and the failure to take measures to stop the bleeding instead of entering an unexit-able tunnel raises many questions. The mutual "stubbornness," according to prominent political circles, will lead to more economic disasters. With a warning of bank closures, the price of the dollar has risen, and correspondent banks have inquired about travel bans against the heads of some banks, which might halt dealings with them, leading to their collapse.
There are efforts for de-escalation; however, the continuation of judicial decisions against the Governor of the Central Bank, Riad Salameh, has pushed Prime Minister Najib Mikati to threaten resignation after noticing a lack of cooperation from Baabda. The U.S. Embassy in Beirut intervened to calm the "anger" of the Prime Minister, reiterating support for the governor, while Paris, through its ambassador, was more "flexible," not opposing potential changes in the governorship now. As banks prepare to resume operations tomorrow, advice from Baabda to the Association of Banks is to direct "arrows" toward Speaker Nabih Berri to pressure him into passing the "Capital Control" law. However, the lack of readiness of the recovery plan raises significant doubts regarding the central bank's ability to intervene in the market for a prolonged period, indicating a frightening worsening of the economic situation, with expectations of a skyrocketing dollar price, along with the prices of essential goods, linked to accelerating regional and international developments in Ukraine and Saudi Arabia, and Israel's renewed threats of war.
In this context, sources close to the government palace indicate that Prime Minister Mikati is convinced that the presidency and the Free Patriotic Movement are determined to conduct their electoral battle by "opening" a conflict with the Central Bank Governor and the Association of Banks. He has informed all relevant parties that he cannot remain a bystander to this "farce" if it continues, as it would undermine his mission at the head of the government, which is summarised in two objectives: ensuring the conduct of electoral prerequisites and maintaining a minimum of financial and monetary stability in this difficult phase. If the current attack persists, matters in the country are headed toward an economic and financial chaos that threatens overall stability and renders the elections irrelevant. Thus, he will not hesitate to resign if he finds his efforts hitting a "dead end" and feels that the political team of the presidency proceeds with its strategy without regard for the general situation in the country.
Regarding the crisis, it has been learned that a phone call took place in recent hours between the Prime Minister and U.S. Ambassador Dorothy Shea, discussing the latest developments related to the file of the Central Bank Governor and the banks. Shea stressed the need to avoid creating crises in inappropriate contexts, reaffirming her country’s trust in the central bank governor, while emphasizing that the Prime Minister should refrain from considering the resignation option hinted at during their conversation, promising to carry out the necessary communications to calm matters. However, Mikati informed her that his presence at the head of the executive authority would not be necessary if the judicial and political team of the President insisted on a confrontation with the financial sector, leaving a limited timeframe for a potential resolution. He insisted that he and Speaker Nabih Berri were "in the same boat" on this file, and the legislative authority sees no justification for the current movement that is unrelated to justice but aims at narrow electoral objectives. Before deciding on resignation, he will take all measures within his powers to stop this "farce," as he put it, stressing that "big heads will roll this time," as the situation can no longer tolerate half-measures.
Moreover, according to these sources, Mikati is displeased with the new action against Salameh, shocked by the continued escalation from Judge Ghada Aoun. He expressed "anger" during a call with Attorney General Ghassan Oueidat and Minister of Justice Henry Khoury, stating that they have surpassed the recent agreement following the extraordinary government session on Saturday. He indicated that this was not merely an attempt to defuse tensions but rather a request from the Minister of Justice to provide a clear framework for how public prosecutors should proceed, ensuring that each public prosecutor conducts necessary investigations within their jurisdiction but does not make decisions that might impact the overall order of the state without consulting the Attorney General, Ghassan Oueidat, who heads all public prosecutions. This has yet to happen.
The investigative public prosecutor in Mount Lebanon, Judge Ghada Aoun, has indicted Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh for the crimes of illicit enrichment and money laundering, along with his brother Raja Salameh, Ukrainian Ana Kozakova, and several companies involved in these offenses. She referred them to the first investigating judge in Mount Lebanon, Nicolas Mansour, noting that Salameh did not attend the session on Monday, thus directing charges against him in absentia. She clarified that the accusation relates to the purchase and rental of apartments in Paris, some belonging to the central bank. Aoun issued a decision imposing a travel ban on all real estate properties belonging to Raja Salameh, preserving the rights of the public treasury that were confirmed to be wasted based on preliminary investigations stemming from a complaint filed by the legal department of the Justice Pioneers group.
In response to the indictment, Salameh stated he ordered an audit revealing that public funds had never been a source of his wealth, denying Aoun's accusation of illicit enrichment, and pointing out that this audit report has been submitted to the relevant authorities in Lebanon and abroad.
In a new legal development, lawyers from the "Unite" alliance and the "Justice Pioneers" group submitted a complaint yesterday, on behalf of depositors from the "Cry of Depositors" Association, to the financial public prosecution via the attorney general at the Court of Cassation against members of the Central Bank's Governing Council, current and former deputy governors, and government commissioners.
Meanwhile, the "Depositors Alliance" has filed a lawsuit against the Association of Banks in Summary Justice, arguing that the strike falls under the category of abuse, threatening to sue the association for "bankruptcy" if the strikes continue. Banking sources confirmed that some parties are attempting to divert the battle from its proper focus and transform it into a conflict between banks and depositors, while the true crisis lies between the Central Bank and the bankrupt state. Thus, the solution begins with the capital control law, which the authority is evading enacting, and more importantly, that the state pay its debts to the Central Bank, estimated in the tens of billions, at which point the central bank would supply banks with dollars from its reserves to settle depositors' deposits. These sources pointed out that there has been a "message" from Baabda stating that the banks' battle should be directed toward Speaker Nabih Berri, who is obstructing the approval of the "Capital Control" law.
Meanwhile, the Association of Banks did not convene yesterday as expected, while discussions are underway to issue a statement today, where banks will return to work tomorrow. The coming hours will be crucial following communication with the Prime Minister, who promised to address the matter, and if the Association of Banks does not sense seriousness in dealing with this critical file, there will be escalatory measures, as the fate of the sector is at stake. These sources revealed that there have been "inquiries" from correspondent banks regarding the six banks subjected to legal actions, aiming to understand the trajectory of events, especially concerning travel bans against the heads of several banks. These inquiries are seen as an unsettling signal that undermines the "image" of the sector among foreign banks, which deal with the banking sector in Lebanon with much caution and skepticism. Legal actions are exacerbating the situation; if correspondent banks cease operations with Lebanese banks, it will inevitably lead to bankruptcy in this sector.
Simultaneously, the concurrent visits of President Michel Aoun and Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi abroad highlight the divergence in views between the two men on several strategic issues concerning Christians. The Lebanese file was present in both the Vatican and Cairo through Aoun's meeting with Pope Francis and Patriarch Al-Rahi's meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, and the Secretary-General of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul Gheit. While President Aoun was keen on gathering support for the war-torn country, Patriarch Al-Rahi raised the issue of the party's arms during his discussion with the Egyptian president, acknowledging that it has become a regional file, and urged, during his meeting with Aboul Gheit, the importance of breaking Lebanon's isolation from its Arab and international environment.
As for the dialogue between Bkerke and Hezbollah, sources from Bkerke denied any current dialogue with Hezbollah while acknowledging the existence of communications from some parties to resume it; however, there is currently no timeframe for this. Hence, any discussion about dialogue at this time is seen as an attempt to obscure Patriarch Al-Rahi's stances in Cairo, where he listed the party's weapons among the issues raised during his conversation with the Egyptian president, confirming that it has become a regional issue, not a local one, while simultaneously insisting on the choice of shared living and Lebanon's finality and Arab identity. He also touched upon brotherly relations and Christian-Muslim coexistence with the Sheikh of Al-Azhar and later visited the Secretary-General of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul Gheit, emphasizing the need for Lebanon to maintain neutrality in order to play a role and regain its status, asserting that Lebanon's isolation from its international and regional surroundings does not satisfy anyone.
While Lebanon sinks deeper into its crises, and the intensity of "empty" electoral debates rises, tensions in the region have escalated, particularly from the Yemen front as Ansar Allah has elevated the level of attacking vital Saudi sites in response to the oil blockade against Yemen. Saudi Arabia announced it bears no responsibility for the stability of the oil market after its facilities were targeted, pressuring the Americans for a more effective intervention. Back in Israel, discussions have resumed regarding the possibility of events spiraling out of control in the region, with confrontations not just with Hezbollah but also with Tehran, amid American intentions to withdraw from the Middle East.
According to the Israeli newspaper "Haaretz," both the political and security levels in Israel acknowledge that influencing U.S. positions in negotiations with Iran has been minimal, given President Joe Biden’s eagerness to expedite signing the nuclear deal, while American negotiators in Vienna have not hardened their stances following Israeli fears. The newspaper noted that Israel is leading an aggressive approach against Iran, which carries risks of becoming entangled in military conflict with Iran itself more than with its nearby "proxies," including Hezbollah. "Haaretz" revealed that this topic has been seriously discussed between Israel and Gulf states due to Saudi Arabia's significant geographical proximity to the Iranian border, with Israel aiming to establish a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia to deploy radars on its territory, enabling deterrence against missile launches from Iran towards Israel.
Finally, estimates in Tel Aviv suggest that a coalition led by Iran possesses a sizable "arsenal" of drones with its allies, with Hezbollah being the most dangerous, as Israeli security estimates indicate that Hezbollah owns a fleet of over 2,000 drones, some manufactured in Iran and others in Lebanon. To justify Israeli aggression, Israeli sources claimed yesterday that the drones shot down by U.S. forces in Iraqi airspace before mid-month were bound for detonation in Israel. According to Israeli security claims, those drones were explosive and aimed at sensitive sites, with media reports indicating that the U.S. military shot down two Iranian drones launched from Iraq on the 14th of the same month. There are speculations that both drones may have been launched from Iran and entered Iraq before being intercepted!
