The newspaper Al-Diyar wrote: What developments and updates will the coming week bring? Several issues will be on the government and parliamentary agenda in the coming days amid the explosion of successive crises, be it from the worsening economic and social suffocation or from the escalating dispute between the judiciary and banks and its implications for financial stability in the country. A Cabinet session is expected to be held next Wednesday to discuss various topics, including the repercussions of the fuel crisis and the Central Bank of Lebanon's approach to the oil sector and fuel importing companies to secure this vital substance at the price set by the Sayrafa platform, covering 85% of the agreed basis.
On the eve of this session, it remains unclear whether the discussion will address other matters with the Central Bank Governor, who is expected to attend, such as ensuring the continuation of support for purchasing wheat and medications for chronic diseases, or the consequences of the escalating crisis between the Central Bank and the banks on one side and the judiciary on the other.
**The Judiciary and Banks Crisis is Open**
Al-Diyar learned from a knowledgeable ministerial source yesterday that the efforts made recently have not yet reached positive results for a settlement regarding this ongoing and open crisis. The source added that some suggestions or ideas that have recently leaked to the media are mere speculations, denying that there is an agreement within the Cabinet on a solution or formula to address this crisis, whether regarding a comprehensive deal that considers the preservation of banks and their sustainability while not undermining the judiciary at the same time.
The source noted that there are attempts to calm the situation as much as possible, emphasizing that this file will remain on the table, especially with the political factors entering it amidst the electoral atmosphere and controversies.
The committee that emerged from the last Cabinet session, chaired by the Minister of Justice, is exploring ways to establish this calm in preparation for addressing the explosive crisis between the banks and the Central Bank on one hand and the judicial authorities on the other.
In this context, Al-Diyar learned from informed sources that the division that appeared in the Cabinet recently regarding this topic has not witnessed any significant developments; there is a team led by President Mikati striving to resolve this crisis, considering that it negatively affects not only the general situation in the country but also the arduous negotiations that Lebanon is conducting with the International Monetary Fund to secure the necessary financial support to halt the collapse.
The sources say that this team believes that opening a confrontation with the Central Bank Governor at this particular time would harm the negotiation process. How could the Governor participate in negotiations while being indicted before the Lebanese judiciary?
**Capital Control and the Softened Formula**
Against the backdrop of this crisis, the discussion on the Capital Control law, which has long been stalled, resumes. The law has lost its intended purpose due to delays and the smuggling of large sums of money in the initial phase of the crisis without any oversight or regulations.
According to available information to Al-Diyar, the previous disagreements regarding the proposed law's formula seem to be repeating in the joint committees' session tomorrow after a draft version of the formula leaked to the media, showing signs of banks' influence through parliamentary and ministerial hands.
According to what has leaked, Article 6 of the law states that all payments and transfers between residents and non-residents shall be made in Lebanese pounds, except in cases specified by a special committee composed of the Minister of Finance, the Minister of Economy, and the Central Bank Governor, chaired by the Prime Minister or his appointee. The decisions prepared by the committee will be published via circulars issued by the Central Bank.
No entity has openly adopted this leaked formula so far, but fingers are pointing at the banks, which are counting on the approval of the Capital Control law in this form.
**Berri: The Rights of Depositors are Sacred**
Political sources accuse the advisor to the Prime Minister, MP Nicolas Nahas, and others of being behind it, knowing that President Nabih Berri has previously confirmed he will not allow the passage or approval of any Capital Control law formula at the expense of depositors and people's rights, which are sacred.
Sources close to him told Al-Diyar yesterday that this position has not and will not change, indicating that if such a formula were proposed, it would naturally need to be amended to guarantee the depositors' funds.
In this context, the head of the Finance Committee, Ibrahim Kanaan, expressed his outright opposition to the leaked formula and tweeted: "The circulating draft of the Capital Control law has come to us, as usual, from outside the norms and does not resemble our proposal at all. We reject it as we reject any formula that does not protect the rights of depositors and grants absolute powers to a committee comprising the government and the Central Bank instead of enshrining these rights in the text of the law."
**Hashim**
Member of the Development and Liberation Bloc, MP Qassem Hashim, stated, "The discussions about depositors' money and approaching the issue under the guise of passing a law that appears one way while secretly placing the bulk of the losses on depositors is an evasion of people's rights, as addressing this issue requires complete clarity without any ambiguity. The anticipated law will reveal the positions of all, starting with the state and its Central Bank and the banks, which are trying to evade their responsibilities. The rights holders are waiting to see what the discussions will lead to and have the right to do everything possible to preserve their funds."
This topic is expected to undergo lengthy discussions in the joint committees meeting tomorrow to arrive at a formula that circumvents the strong objections regarding this article. If amendments that preserve the depositors' rights are approved, the parliament in its session on Tuesday will discuss this law as part of its agenda, which consists of 16 items of projects and proposals, including those related to financing the parliamentary elections.
If the disagreement on the Capital Control law continues, it will not pass this time either in the general assembly and will remain pending. According to the information, President Mikati is enthusiastic about passing the law as soon as possible and before the visit of the International Monetary Fund mission to Lebanon next week, considering that this issue falls within the conditions and demands of the Fund in the ongoing negotiations.
The information adds that the Fund emphasizes the approval of the law, but the leaked formula yesterday is not proposed by the Fund; it is "a local production,” according to an informed parliamentary source. The source notes that any encroachment on depositors’ funds in the mentioned law will face strong opposition from the parliamentary majority, led by President Berri, who has repeatedly stated that depositors' funds are sacred and that touching them is a red line.
**Continuous French Communication with Mikati**
On another note, a knowledgeable source revealed to Al-Diyar that Paris, despite its focus on the developments and repercussions of the war in Ukraine, is closely monitoring developments in Lebanon. The source indicated that French officials are in continuous communication with the Lebanese authorities, particularly with President Mikati, noting that France is pushing to expedite the completion of the financial recovery plan and advance negotiations with the International Monetary Fund and undertake necessary reforms. It is also simultaneously focusing on conducting the parliamentary elections in a sound and transparent atmosphere.
**Movement Towards the Arabs**
On another front, President Mikati, following his recent message to the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister and the Saudi and Kuwaiti welcome of it, is aiming to intensify his movements toward Arab countries in general, and the Gulf states in particular, in order to accelerate the normalization of relations between Lebanon and these countries. It is expected that he will visit some Arab nations to achieve this goal, knowing that his visit to Saudi Arabia is being planned discreetly after facing previous difficulties from the Saudi side.
**Mikati from Doha: Lebanon Needs Arab Sponsorship**
In a press conference on the sidelines of his participation in the opening session of the Doha Forum, and after meeting with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Prime Minister Najib Mikati said, "Lebanon always needs Arab sponsorship; the void can only be filled by those who made mistakes regarding it."
He described the situation that has occurred between Lebanon and the Gulf countries as "a passing summer cloud that will, God willing, dissipate with the visits I will undertake to Arab countries, and with the restoration of diplomatic relations between Lebanon and the Gulf nations to their normal state. We need these relations, especially with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”
He revealed that the Qatari Foreign Minister will visit Lebanon soon to personally assess the needs of Lebanon. He described the current economic situation in Lebanon as "a combination of problems accumulated over the past thirty years, which cannot be resolved overnight. The government is striving hard to restore recovery to the economy, and hopefully, this will be reflected soon. There is no choice but to cooperate with the International Monetary Fund to put Lebanon on the path to recovery."
He indicated that the IMF mission is expected to visit Lebanon next week.
**Limited Saudi Role in Elections?**
As has become known, the atmosphere following the Saudi statement welcoming Mikati's recent stance indicates the imminent return of Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari to Beirut. Political sources say that this return is not linked to Riyadh's recent stance regarding preparing for the normalization of diplomatic relations but is more connected to the Kingdom's efforts to remain directly in touch with the electoral event in Lebanon.
These sources report, based on reliable contacts, that Saudi Arabia will seek to assist its allies in creating a more balanced atmosphere with Hezbollah and its allies, especially after listening to some allies who requested direct Saudi presence to support their electoral position.
They indicated that the period remaining until the elections is no more than a month and a half, and that the Saudi role in creating a balance in this electoral event will be limited and will face some difficulties, particularly regarding the Sunni landscape in the absence of President Hariri and the Future Movement from the elections.
The sources indicated that the Saudi ambassador will seek to rectify this situation as much as possible, but Riyadh is not keen on fully engaging in the battle as its allies in Lebanon wish for, owing to ongoing developments in the region.
These sources also note that recent events involving the bombardment of Saudi oil facilities in Jeddah by Houthi rebels may negatively affect Riyadh's level of interest in Lebanese electoral affairs. The nearing agreement between Iran and the United States is another factor that may deter Riyadh from getting too involved in the Lebanese parliamentary elections as some in Lebanon hope.
**Finalizing Electoral Lists**
On the electoral front, it is expected that the process of completing electoral lists will take place in the coming week before the deadline of April 4 for list submission. According to current information and prevailing atmospheres, there is evident confusion in finalizing lists in various districts from this team or that one.
For example, the alliance between the Progressive Socialist Party and the Lebanese Forces has not yet finalized the complete list in Aley-Shouf, as is similarly the case for the alliance between Arslanian and the National Liberal Movement, Wiam Wahhab, and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. Both sides are hesitating to finalize the inclusion of Najib Bustani in either of the lists.
Additionally, the second alliance has not yet decided whether it will form two separate lists or one unified list. The same situation applies in Metn, where the picture of competing lists is not yet complete, especially for the Lebanese Forces and the National Liberal Movement, while the Kataeb Party and its allies' list is completed, as well as the list of the son of former minister Elias Murr aligned with the Syrian Social Nationalist Party.
In Zahle, competitive lists have also not been finalized, except for MP Michel Daher’s list, and intensive contacts are ongoing to complete the electoral lists in the few remaining days.
