The newspaper "Al-Jumhuriya" reports that two simultaneous races are underway on parallel tracks, the outcomes of which will shape the features of the new phase Lebanon is heading towards after the parliamentary elections scheduled for May 15, regardless of the results of these elections. The first is governmental, as Najib Mikati's government races against time until the official announcement of the election results, aiming to capitalize first on the positive Gulf shift towards Lebanon. It is no secret that this is a top priority for the government and its president. Secondly, they seek to benefit from international conditional assistance, opened by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which obliges the Lebanese party to meet reform commitments that are not without pain, especially in terms of financial, economic, and administrative levels.
The second race is heated at the threshold of the parliamentary elections. The mobilization phase that concerned parties have entered indicates that the time remaining until the elections—now just 32 days away—signals enormous unrest across all 15 electoral districts, which have become open arenas for settling political scores. This is confirmed by the mutual political rhetoric, especially among the partisan fronts, whose primary concern now appears to simply maintain their current representation. If they are fortunate enough and assisted by electoral thresholds, they may even hope to diminish their opponents’ representation by even a single seat.
**Initial Test**
While Mikati's government aims to win the race fueled by positive winds blowing in from Gulf states and the IMF, time remains its primary adversary; the government's lifespan is approaching its end in about a month, making it increasingly difficult to reach positive conclusions—both in terms of leveraging the Gulf’s shift into tangible actions that would open broader Gulf relief avenues, and in fulfilling the IMF’s conditions.
A session of joint parliamentary committees scheduled for tomorrow (Wednesday) is anticipated to test the seriousness of commitment to these conditions, particularly regarding the new capital control law. Previous parliamentary atmospheres prior to the committee session point to a positive parliamentary sentiment regarding this legislation following the announcement of a principles agreement between Lebanon and the IMF, as the capital control law is one of the essentials to reach a cooperation program between Lebanon and the Fund. The Fund considers the approval of this matter in the parliament a positive encouraging message. Therefore, the project is likely to pass through the joint committee session tomorrow, positioning it for approval in a forthcoming session of the parliament’s general assembly—unless political bidding undermines this progress, as happened in a previous committee session.
In this context, it is noted that the agenda of the joint committee session includes, alongside the capital control law proposal, a set of legislative proposals aimed at establishing special economic zones in Zahle, Baalbek-Hermel, and Tyre.
**Certainty and Challenges**
On the electoral level, various political forces assert that the elections are proceeding on their natural course towards the definitive date of May 15, and that the decision to hold them is stronger than any attempts by any party to disrupt them. However, there is serious concern among political circles about uncalculated factors that threaten to disrupt the electoral process.
From here, political sources confirm to "Al-Jumhuriya" that there are four main challenges facing all parties involved in the electoral entitlement, led by the government, which must decisively address these challenges to ensure the elections proceed on schedule:
1. **The First Challenge**: Public fears expressed by the Foreign Ministry regarding the elections for expatriates due to material difficulties that hinder the availability of required financial allocations amounting to 4.5 million dollars.
2. **The Second Challenge**: A serious judicial problem emerged on the electoral front, manifested in the announced judicial pullback from the entitlement, with a significant number of judges refusing to chair the registration committees, for both material and non-material reasons, some linked to the authority of this minister or that.
3. **The Third Challenge**: Providing all logistical requirements to ensure a successful election day free from any obstacles or disruptions that could complicate the electoral process, whether regarding teachers, amidst rising discussions concerning their reluctance to head polling stations, or ensuring polling centers have 24-hour electricity needed throughout the voting and counting processes to finalize results.
4. **The Fourth Challenge**: Implementing preemptive precautions to prevent any crisis that could arise from those adversely affected by the elections creating a fuel crisis on the eve of the elections and on voting day, complicating voters' ability to move from their residences to their registration locations to participate in the voting process.
The sources affirm that there is difficulty in overcoming these challenges, yet conducting the elections requires their resolution, placing the ball in the government's court first, as well as with all parties involved in the electoral entitlement, where they are all obliged to devise means to overcome these challenges to make the elections a reality set for their scheduled date.
**Confirmation**
In parallel, government sources emphasize to "Al-Jumhuriya" that the government is confident about conducting the elections on time, stressing that "all obstacles and excuses will be removed for accomplishing this electoral entitlement as scheduled."
**Elections: Necessity and Need**
Notably, amidst the cloud of concerns surrounding the electoral entitlement, a senior political official confirmed to "Al-Jumhuriya" that regardless of prior discussions suggesting that the election results will not alter the political and parliamentary reality and will merely replicate the existing situation, it is essential to observe the following:
1. It is evident that the Ministry of Interior is now prepared to hold the elections, and it is the government's responsibility to finalize any remaining measures and actions still pending regarding the elections. Additionally, any attempt to disrupt the elections equates to high treason, dragging the country into inevitable ruin that starts with parliamentary vacancy and does not end with presidential vacancy, with any interim crises resulting in uncontrollable collapses at all levels. Thus far, I can express my trust in what I hear from leaders and officials regarding their commitments until proven otherwise.
2. Conducting the elections is not only urgent and essential for revitalizing the political and parliamentary life; it is a necessity to avoid plunging into chaotic vacancy primarily because none are "free" to deal with Lebanon amidst the erupting volcanoes surrounding it, be it regionally or internationally, especially with the developments stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war, drawing global focus on major issues while smaller matters are deferred indefinitely. This indicates Lebanon's standing in international concerns has diminished considerably amid new developments, meaning that Lebanon is not currently visible on the international radar. Thus, the elections represent a chance to maintain the existing status quo and keep the country in a state of political and parliamentary calm and stability.
3. There is no doubt that certain domestic factions are sacrificing the country and its people for a parliamentary seat, epitomizing the rhetoric that stirs political, sectarian, and denominational tensions, purposefully reopening past wounds and inciting divisions daily. However, it is noteworthy that a strong internal and external decision has been made to steer Lebanon away from any tensions or conflicts of any kind. As a result, those who engage in inflammatory discourse appear to be shouting alone, with no support from any factions either domestically or internationally.
4. Contrary to what some political parties promote regarding international skepticism towards the electoral results if they do not align with the expectations of the "revolutionaries" and do not meet the ambitions of the Lebanese for fundamental change, the international priority—whether American, European, or Arab—is to preserve stability in Lebanon and prevent it from sliding into dangerous pitfalls. Therefore, the elections represent a gateway to reinforcing stability. Consequently, the international community is enthusiastic about conducting the parliamentary elections, with calls intensifying to ensure they occur on time. Even if there is a desire to provoke a change in the existing political image, ultimately, grounded in the priority of Lebanese stability, it will acquiesce to the outcomes of these elections, whatever they may be.
5. While the outcomes of the elections will undoubtedly yield a new parliamentary and political reality in Lebanon, defined by the Lebanese through their votes dictating the governance of Lebanon for four years, the balance of power between majority and minority will be determined by the alliances between parliamentary blocs. It is, therefore, incorrect to prematurely claim that the majority is assured in one side or another.
**Al-Bukhari's Tour**
In light of the Gulf shift, Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Al-Bukhari's tour yesterday was notable, where he met with Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, Grand Mufti of Lebanon Sheikh Abdul Latif Deryan, Deputy Head of the Supreme Islamic Shiite Council Sheikh Ali Al-Khateeb, and Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Samy Abi Al-Muna. While the ambassador stressed that "we are hopeful for Lebanon and the Lebanese," Sheikh Deryan remarked that “the return of ambassadors heralds good prospects for Lebanon despite the challenges it faces and for a promising future for the Lebanese.” Sheikh Al-Khateeb noted that this return could signify "the beginning of a new path in strengthening brotherly relations between the two countries." For his part, Sheikh Abi Al-Muna hoped "that officials in Lebanon will strive for ongoing understanding on everything that serves the interest of the two brotherly countries."
**Mikati**
Notably, Prime Minister Najib Mikati's visit to Saudi Ambassador Walid Al-Bukhari at his residence in Yarzeh drew attention. After the meeting, he expressed: "I was very pleased this evening to meet with His Excellency the Ambassador of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Lebanon, my friend Walid Al-Bukhari. My happiness arises from his return to Lebanon after this forced absence. I heard from him of the Kingdom's commitment—king, crown prince, and leadership—to support Lebanon and always stand by its side."
Mikati commented on the historical and future relationship between the Kingdom and Lebanon. He added: "He spoke of the French-Saudi partnership regarding support in six sectors in Lebanon, noting that his return during this holy month represents a symbol of further solidarity with the Lebanese people. This is the essence of the month of Ramadan, a month of mercy and solidarity, providing an opportunity to strengthen the bonds of love uniting Lebanon with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a solidarity echoed by the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and His Royal Highness the Crown Prince. The ambassador confirmed to me their deep concern for Lebanon's unity and aid, focusing on what Lebanon desires."
In response to a question about guarantees provided by Lebanon to Saudi Arabia, he remarked: "We are talking about interactions between states, and the statement I issued emphasized Lebanon's commitment to maintaining its relations and principles concerning the best relationships with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council as a state. The relationship between the two states will, God willing, be based on these principles. I am keen on these relations and look forward to strengthening them even further."
When asked whether Saudi Arabia had ever closed its doors, Mikati stated: "I have never felt that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has closed its doors to me or any Lebanese. We fully understand that Lebanese residing in the Kingdom are surrounded by care and attention from the leadership. I hope to visit Saudi Arabia very soon, and if you wish to know the date, it will be during the month of Ramadan."
**Iftar**
Al-Bukhari hosted an iftar at his residence, announcing that Saudi Arabia has always demonstrated its concern for the stability and national unity of Lebanon while preserving its Arab affiliation. He reiterated that the return to Lebanon reflects this vision. Al-Bukhari also mentioned that Saudi Arabia has not severed its relations with Lebanon but undertook a diplomatic procedure to express and consult regarding a previously offensive stance. Regarding the funds between Lebanon and France, he stated, "This is to support Lebanon, as we have a mechanism and a committee to follow up on and implement projects and we will fulfill all of our commitments." He underlined that Saudi Arabia does not interfere in domestic affairs; however, the return is made in accordance with joint projects, emphasizing discussions of shared humanitarian and stabilization projects in Lebanon, where a joint preparatory committee is established.
He added: "Saudi Arabia's foundations do not permit it to interfere in sovereign matters, and we respect the legislative and presidential mechanisms, urging everyone to address them based on competence, as the Kingdom cares about the Lebanese people and humanity in Lebanon."
**Grio and Shia**
For her part, the French Ambassador to Lebanon affirmed working with Saudi Arabia on humanitarian projects for Lebanon. Meanwhile, the American Ambassador to Lebanon expressed hope for the return of economic stability in Lebanon.
**New Qatari Ambassador**
In a confirmation of what "Al-Jumhuriya" reported yesterday, Arab diplomatic sources revealed that the Qatari government has appointed a new ambassador to Beirut, Ibrahim bin Abdul Aziz Mohammed Saleh Al-Sahlawi, to revive communication directly between Beirut and Doha. According to information from "Al-Jumhuriya," the new ambassador will present his credentials to Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib this afternoon. Before noon today, the Kuwaiti ambassador to Beirut, Abdul Aal al-Qanai, will visit the Ministry of Foreign Affairs as his first official activity following his return to Beirut.
**Hezbollah**
In his turn, Mohammad Raad, head of Hezbollah's Loyalty to Resistance bloc, in a speech at a ceremony at the scouting city in Zawtar Al-Sharqiya, affirmed that "the upcoming parliamentary entitlement has brought forth two paths: one we express in all our meetings—a path of construction, protection, development, investment, and management, aiming for a hopeful, clean environment and state free from destructive corruption. The other path, unfortunately, is one of antagonism, searching among others for issues to contradict without possessing a distinct project to present, leading ultimately to drought, desolation, financial bankruptcy, state collapse, and a need to beg for aid from here and there."
He concluded: "Between these two paths, we are honored to represent the first path that you embody, which serves as its foundation, fence, and spirit emanating in every occasion, field, season, and crossroads." He concluded by saying, "I pray that God gives us success to elevate this path to be the winning, victorious, and prevalent one in our political, economic, and social lives."
**Gemayel Responds to Bassil**
On another note, Samy Gemayel, the president of the Kataeb Party, responded to Jibran Bassil, head of the Free Patriotic Movement, saying: "How can you appear before the Lebanese after all you have done with your partners against Lebanon, handing over decision-making to Hezbollah, isolating the country, leading to the complete destruction of our economy and the essentials of Lebanese life? You can maneuver and distract people with lies to cover up your failures and obscure your deceptions, but the truth remains that you face a party that is neither tempted by bribery nor intimidated by threats—this reality won't change, and it is better for you to remain silent out of shame. Your approaches and proposals to persuade us to vote for your presidential candidate and participate in the government have been repeatedly refused. Why? Because we are men of state and principles rejecting transactional dealings, whereas you are only adept at selling and buying at the expense of the people."
