The newspaper "Al-Jumhouria" reported: The general atmosphere indicates that the parliamentary elections will take place on the scheduled date of May 15. No internal voice overshadows the sound of election machines and the heated preparations underway for the participants in the electoral race to enter the voting rooms, determining the new parliamentary image that will govern the Lebanese reality for the next four years. While various stakeholders involved in this entitlement share the notion that there is no internal reason to disrupt or delay it—which is confirmed by the official authorities at all their presidential and ministerial levels, appearing reassured about holding the elections on time—there remain questions and doubts surrounding this entitlement due to the unaddressed obstacles in the path of the elections. These include issues related to expatriate voting due to logistical and financial weaknesses preventing a normal voting process, judicial dilemmas, teachers' demands, and the challenging issue of securing electricity supply to polling and counting centers on election day.
While awaiting urgent solutions to these obstacles, which fall under the responsibility of the ruling authority to utilize the time remaining until the elections to impose them, the escalation of the living and financial crisis has imposed a pressing priority on all internal components to engage with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and explore the windows of relief it has opened for Lebanon. This could be through a recovery plan that addresses this crisis without burdening the Lebanese with unmanageable burdens or through the capital control law and the prompt approval of the law concerning the lifting of banking secrecy.
Regarding these matters, responsible economic sources convey a cautious atmosphere from the IMF concerning how the Lebanese side interacts with the fund's requirements, which are an obligatory passage for Lebanon to transition into possible relief. The sources told "Al-Jumhouria": "The IMF has placed Lebanon in front of an opportunity, and two urgent matters need to be accomplished before the parliamentary elections to bolster this opportunity: first, the approval of the capital control law, and second, the lifting of banking secrecy. If these are not achieved within this timeframe, this opportunity will be at risk, and it would not be surprising if the fund changed its course regarding Lebanon and moved to another place, especially since the queue of countries seeking IMF assistance is very long. Moreover, the Russian-Ukrainian war has imposed new developments that are extremely dangerous, as hinted by IMF President Kristalina Georgieva, who stated that the fund faces a very significant dilemma: it needs to secure more than $300 billion on the day the war in Ukraine stops. Where will this money come from? Thus, if Lebanon loses its role with the IMF through the opportunity provided to it, it may not easily find it again in the future, and at that point, Lebanon will collapse even further."
According to the sources, the opportunity provided to Lebanon by the IMF is narrowing by the minute, making it critical for Lebanon to seize it by approving the capital control law and lifting banking secrecy as a first step before the elections. This opportunity is further bolstered if coupled with the adoption of a recovery plan, followed by the subsequent step after the elections by approving the general budget and the law related to restructuring the banking sector.
In response to a question, the sources stated that all matters become smoother if the capital control law is distanced from populism and electoral implications as approached by some MPs. Lebanon is walking on a knife's edge, and the proposed medication for treatment is undoubtedly bitter, as the disease is rampant in the Lebanese body, and the financial and economic crisis has suffocated it. Any talk about restoring billions of dollars is merely a fanciful dream. Therefore, the deliberate blockage only results in hindering the cooperation program with the IMF, which is Lebanon's only refuge and option to emerge from its suffocating crisis.
The sources highlighted that “Lebanon is not hopeless if we work well and follow the paths to solutions. Therefore, there is no excuse for Lebanon to delay further in approving the capital control law. For instance, Sri Lanka has faced economic and financial difficulties for about a week and has announced its inability to pay its debt bonds; just two days ago, it resorted to implementing capital control, meaning in less than three days, while Lebanon has been struggling and resisting this issue for three years."
The sources express serious concerns that continuing to delay and not responding to the IMF opportunity means placing Lebanon in a far more catastrophic scenario than what it experienced in the past. The first signs of distress are the return of the dollar to soar to unbelievable levels (it jumped yesterday to above 26,000 Lebanese pounds), alongside accompanying pains at all levels, preparing the internal atmosphere for a serious social explosion.
**French-Saudi Bandages**
In light of this situation, a noteworthy French-Saudi initiative has emerged towards Lebanon, providing some “bandages” for the wounds of the Lebanese people at this stage. This is being emphasized in the iftars organized by Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari, regarding the establishment of a joint Saudi-French support fund of 72 million euros, equally shared between the two countries, to assist the Lebanese people, humanitarian, health, social, educational institutions, and some security agencies. This amount is likely to increase to 100 million euros soon.
According to what some participants at Ambassador Bukhari's iftar heard, "these amounts will represent a drop in the ocean if we find serious cooperation and commitment to what Prime Minister Najib Mikati promised."
The sources mentioned that this fund will officially launch from Lebanon before Eid al-Fitr, with the participation of Saudi and French officials in the launch ceremony. Of course, this launch will not be under the auspices of the Lebanese state.
**The Committee Session Stumbles**
The capital control law project has suffered a new setback in the Parliament, where the joint committee session intended to continue discussing it stumbled after members of the "Strong Lebanon" bloc and "Lebanese Forces bloc" announced their refusal to discuss capital control before reviewing the recovery plan.
Deputy Speaker Elie Ferzli, who heads the committee meetings, stated: "Under no circumstances should there be capital control without a recovery plan that specifies the losses and responsibilities. The main responsibility lies with those who borrowed money, then the Central Bank, and the banks.”
He pointed out that "the quorum was fully secured in today's meeting (yesterday), and no one should think that all these movements will affect the Parliament, and no law that undermines depositors' rights will emerge from it." He continued: "The international community, the government, and various institutions involved in financial matters should know that we cannot negotiate on depositors' rights."
Ferzli then visited Prime Minister Najib Mikati at the Grand Serail and revealed that "the Prime Minister will send a message announcing a principled position reflecting the essence of the recovery plan, which is still under study by the ministers; however, it must be presented to the deputies, which includes protecting depositors' rights at 85% directly, meaning small depositors whose accounts constitute about 85%. This is something we cannot afford to lose in the Parliament. As for the remaining 15%, there is also a plan that should be presented to the deputies for them to provide the Prime Minister with the required comments as proposed or how they should be modified, based on suggestions from deputies to the Prime Minister and to the Council of Ministers.”
Ferzli clarified that "85% of depositors' rights, especially for those with smaller accounts from $100,000 and below, are guaranteed and fully protected."
He stated: "We aim to reach a conclusion that effectively protects depositors' rights and that losses should be distributed among the responsible parties; the depositor is the only one who is not to blame, while the banks, the central bank, and successive governments are responsible for the mismanagement that created what is termed a debt owed by the Lebanese state."
**Mikati's Message**
Later, President Mikati sent a message to the Parliament accompanied by a copy of the preliminary plan presented by the government for comments on its content. It is known that the Prime Minister had asked the ministers in the last session to provide their comments on the project before finalizing it and submitting it through several draft laws to the Parliament for consideration and approval.
Mikati affirmed "the government's commitment to ensuring and safeguarding depositors' rights, particularly for small depositors, as explicitly outlined in the plan presented in the session held on the 14th of this month."
He stated: "The draft law aiming to impose exceptional and temporary controls on banking transfers and cash withdrawals does not relate to depositors' rights but rather represents a ground requirement set by the IMF to present the desired recovery plan to its governing board."
He added: "I call upon all concerned parties to approach this subject objectively and away from opportunism and populism, aiming to reach a fair and just solution for everyone."
**Positions**
Following the dissolution of the committee meeting, a series of parliamentary positions were issued. MP George Adwan stated: "They will write off $60 billion of debts, and depositors will bear this weight. We should not discuss capital control before the recovery plan is approved. Any statements regarding protecting depositors by the Prime Minister are incorrect."
MP Ibrahim Kanaan remarked: "What happened does not mean we want to stop discussing the capital control law, but it should come within a clear vision. People have rights that must be maintained, and we are ready to continue discussing capital control after it is amended in light of clear data from the government, without placing the depositor at fault for the state’s insolvency when it is a responsibility of the Central Bank, banks, and the state."
In a statement, the Progressive Socialist Party questioned: "Is the proposed capital control in its current form serving reform and recovery? Isn’t this a formula that absolves the state, the Central Bank, and the banks? After all the procrastination in approving capital control, which we demanded be passed since 2019, why this insistence on approving a vague formula that conceals the intention to impose on the people and small depositors what they are not guilty of at all?"
**Electoral File**
Electorally, there are no new developments regarding the judges’ refusal to participate in the electoral entitlement, nor is there any advancement concerning the electricity issue, which the Ministry of Interior is working on to secure supply to polling and counting centers, which has yet to succeed. Meanwhile, the topic of expatriate elections was discussed in a meeting held at the Grand Serail yesterday, between Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi and Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib, who indicated that the discussion included the issue of the elections in Sydney. He affirmed that "the elections will be held wherever necessary, and those who question it do not want elections to occur." He added that "there are about 17,000 voters in Sydney, and we will send five diplomats to assist the consul."
Regarding the obstacles to expatriate voting, Bou Habib mentioned that "the only obstacle is securing cash; we need 1,200 delegates to distribute across polling stations, and their compensation must be secured in cash."
Leader of the Lebanese Forces Party, Samir Geagea, noted in a press conference that "a crime is occurring against expatriates abroad, and instead of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs facilitating their voting process, it complicates matters for them."
He stated, "The Prime Minister must ask the Foreign Minister to distribute expatriates to the polling stations nearest to them and provide the electoral lists." He added, "We will vote for a vote of no confidence in the Foreign Minister based on his actions in the expatriates' electoral file."
