These lines offer a preliminary reading ahead of the official results regarding the outcome of the parliamentary elections, particularly concerning the Christian community, with a significant decline in the popularity of the Free Patriotic Movement and a rise in the popularity of the Lebanese Forces and the Forces of Change, losing the title of "the strongest Christian," which holds implications for future electoral matters. Gebran Bassil was targeted during the events of October 17 and afterwards. However, Samir Geagea was also targeted as groups emerged and figures appeared that encroached on the "Geagean" base, with some of them allying together to create a new Christian force that can be summed up as "the change-oriented." Had it not been for these groups, the Lebanese Forces would have secured additional seats. If the Future Movement had not been absent, we would have witnessed an unprecedented tsunami under the proportional law. Had it not been for Hezbollah, the “Movement” would have lost several seats.
A large segment of Christians did not vote for the “Lebanese Forces” or others; they voted against Hezbollah. The "Free Patriotic Movement" positioned itself as Hezbollah's Christian counterpart, and despite some differences at times, it remained a cover for it even after midnight yesterday when Gebran Bassil spoke about the “Lebanese Forces” electoral violations without mentioning a single word about the documented offenses of “the Party.”
Bassil chose the wrong discourse for the elections. His assertion that voting for the "Lebanese Forces" equated to voting for ISIS and Israel garnered Geagea tens of thousands of additional votes. Meanwhile, Geagea benefitted as he portrayed that voting for the "Movement" was a ballot for Hezbollah. Bassil particularly lost when he attempted to engage in dual elections, both domestically and abroad. He waged an exposed battle to eliminate the Movement's candidates in favor of others, yet all his opponents succeeded, rendering him not fully in control of his parliamentary bloc. After October 31, 2022, many things could change.
He also lost when he chose a corrupt and opportunistic journalist to lead his media campaign and when his deputy thought that attacking citizens would strengthen the party’s base. Meanwhile, the role of some rational figures in the "Movement" diminished, causing a significant loss of the moderate segment that previously viewed the "Movement" as an alternative to the militia.
He faltered when he re-nominated deputies who had achieved zero accomplishments in the current council, based on loyalty rather than competence. This was the same principle that led him to confront Ibrahim Kanaan in Metn, where his battle now is with Eddie Maalouf and not with Sami Gemayel, as well as his conflict with Simon Abirami in Jbeil, which has now turned into a battle with Walid Khoury rather than Ziad Hawat. Let’s not forget his public criticism of Ziad Aswad and Amal Abu Zid on the eve of the elections. Is it reasonable for a party leader to criticize his candidates just about a day before the elections?
A thorough reading of the decline of the Free Patriotic Movement requires time and elaboration. This is a quick overview. The conclusion is that the continuation of Bassil, which is what is expected, in a denial approach on one hand, surrounded by sycophants and opportunists more than thinkers on the other hand, along with a return to the past that everyone wants to forget on a third level, and contradictions in his words and stances—such as supporting peace with Israel while allying with Hezbollah, waging internal wars, insisting on a lion's share in governments and appointments under the pretext of Christian rights, failing to recognize incapacity and replacing it with the "they didn’t let us" policy—if Bassil continues in all of this, it means that the loss will persist.
Only a retreat from all of the above and building bridges with others, especially within the Christian community, as well as reassessing alliances and positions, and abstaining from governments, may secure his return.
Gebran Bassil must choose…
Dani Haddad - MTV Site
