A political source commented on the results of the Lebanese elections, noting that their distinctiveness compared to previous elections lies in the slap they dealt to candidates aligned with the Syrian regime, while "Hezbollah" was unable to provide them with a safety net to cross back into parliament. Nevertheless, it managed to bolster its ally, National Liberal Movement leader Jibran Basil, who secured parliamentary seats with votes from the Shiite duo, which bolstered his claim of leading the largest parliamentary bloc, despite his rival, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, making gains that allowed him to achieve an advantage in the Christian street by winning the highest number of seats with Christian votes.
The elections primarily reflected the public's rejection of candidates who adopted the political rhetoric of "Hezbollah," which also affected Faisal Omar Karamy, who failed to retain his parliamentary seat in Tripoli. This failure is seen by the political source as a consequence of Karamy's association with "Hezbollah" and his adoption of its discourse, which was met with rejection in the Tripoli street. The source considers Karamy's failure a direct message to "Hezbollah," indicating that the Tripoli mood does not agree with the political discourse of the resistance axis and its defense in the northern capital.
The source pointed out that Karamy was not compelled to engage in the dispute between the party and Geagea, who had a presence in Tripoli through his alliance with former minister Ashraf Rifi, which reflects a determination to avoid reopening civil war files during the electoral campaigns. He noted that the surprises did not stop with Karamy's failure; they extended to the failure of Deputy Speaker Eli Al-Ferzli in favor of his competitor, Dr. Ghassan Skaf, and the failures of Talal Arslan, Wiam Wahhab, Marwan Khair El-Din, and Assaad Hardan. Additionally, Basil received a blow by losing a Maronite seat in Baabda and two Maronite and Catholic seats in Jezzine without the party ensuring their passage to parliament, unlike candidates from the "National Movement" who were supported by Shiite votes.
The political source emphasized that those who were betting on the elections becoming a platform for the Syrian regime's return to play an active role in the political equation collided with the public's rejection of its return to securing a supportive parliamentary bloc in harmony with the resistance axis under "Hezbollah's" sponsorship. He stated that the acquisition of all parliamentary seats allocated to the Shiite community by the party, in alliance with Speaker Nabih Berri, does not conceal its failure to provide protection to its allies, particularly in its areas of influence in the south, which has put it in a predicament requiring a reassessment of its political discourse.
The source observed that the Islamic Charitable Projects Association (the Ahbash) excelled in managing its electoral battle in Beirut by competing alone, preferring not to ally with "Hezbollah," although its separation from it does not negate its political harmony and discourse. He noted that not adopting its discourse considers the general mood in acquiring more votes due to Future Movement leader and former Prime Minister Saad Hariri's abstention from running in the elections.
The source added that Basil's disastrous list failure in Jezzine came due to his alignment with "Hezbollah" in his campaign against the "Forces," which led to the Christian street punishing him. He also miscalculated by entering the battle alongside his fellow "Movement" colleague Amal Abou Zeid against another colleague, Ziad Aswad, which caused him to lose control over the preferential vote after competition moved within the same household between the rival allies, a situation that also occurred in the northern Metn district.
In this context, the political source revealed that Basil and the political team affiliated with President Michel Aoun prioritized ensuring the victory of Catholic candidate Eddie Maalouf over Lebanese Forces competitor Melhem Riachi, which confused his Maronite companions Ibrahim Kanaan and Orthodox Elias Bou Saab and nearly led to one of them's downfall due to wasting the preferential vote in Maalouf's favor without securing his arrival to parliament. The source stated that Basil's only concern is to maintain the continuity of Aoun's political legacy, albeit with an agenda to dismantle what is termed as the "hawks" team inside the movement to clear the way for those loyal to him.
He noted that Basil's parliamentary bloc is inflated in numbers by including members from the Tashnaq Party and MP Mohammad Yahya from Akkar, who played a role in securing the threshold for his two candidates who won, Jimmy Jabour and Assaad Dirgham, even though Yahya is classified as one of the last symbols of the Syrian regime in the north. He confirmed that he must pay a bill to "Hezbollah" not only because he was behind assembling his list in Akkar, but also for his role in securing the victory of his candidates Edgar Traboulsi from Beirut II and Charbel Maroun from West Bekaa, in addition to reinforcing his list in Keserwan-Jbeil.
Moreover, the election results undermined the theory of the strong president in his sect just a few months before President Aoun's term ends and led to the cancellation of the political effects of the Doha Conference, specifically concerning the veto or blocking third. The source highlights the increasing preferential votes for "Hezbollah" representatives, surpassing those in the previous electoral cycle, in an attempt to interpret its causes while comparing them with the preferential votes obtained by members of the Amal Movement or its allies.
It remains to be seen whether the party aims to send a message to the outside world asserting that it is the strongest Shiite faction, and that the imposed sanctions and its listing as a terrorist organization have bolstered its strength within its sect, or if it seeks to prelude demands for reconsidering the distribution of Shiite seats in raising its share, even if the presence of "Hezbollah" Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah at the helm deters embarking on such a venture threatening the Shiite house from within.
The sharp division within the parliament, which is almost evenly split between the ruling coalition, the opposition, and change forces, will not be an obstacle to reelecting Berri as Speaker of Parliament for another term, as long as Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt does not compromise his relationship with him despite differences with the ruling forces.
Mohammed Shuqair - Asharq Al-Awsat
