Sources close to the Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri state that he is fully prepared for the presidential election and will call for a session to elect a new president at the beginning of September, adhering to constitutional deadlines. However, the invitation does not guarantee that a session will convene or that a president will be elected, given the current circumstances surrounding the election that lean more towards a vacuum for approximately a month, likely until the end of the year, due to the positioning of political forces internally and their deep divisions, as well as the external focus on various issues amidst dramatic deterioration on multiple levels. Europe is preoccupied with the Ukraine war, striving to secure gas, oil, and water before winter, while America is seeking additional oil primarily from Iraq and Saudi Arabia under its conditions. Both are pushing towards a nuclear deal with Iranian concessions.
Consequently, Lebanon remains without regional or international support, except for an American-Arab mandate to France to manage its file and complete the presidential election process to avoid a vacuum. France is expected to take action starting in September, with the beginning of the two-month constitutional deadline, hoping to finalize the matter and elect a president even after October 31, depending on the clarity of developments in the region and globally regarding the nuclear file, which appears to be making progress with hopes of a signature by the end of the year, along with Saudi-Iranian negotiations, Israeli elections, and the situation in Iraq.
As for the identity and nature of the president, it remains a point of contention, according to informed political sources. Some Lebanese political forces have informed the French ambassador in Lebanon, Anne Grillo, to exclude the economic and financial figure from its presidential options and to consider a seasoned political figure who understands the complexities of the Lebanese reality, possesses a vision for a solution, and can create a conducive political climate for investment. France’s choice reflects President Emmanuel Macron's disappointment with the "corrupt" Lebanese political class, which he believes undermined his initiative to save Lebanon launched after the Beirut port explosion during his visit to Lebanon when he met with political forces at the Pine Palace and held his famous press conference. Most of these forces rejected the lifeline France extended to rescue Lebanon.
Furthermore, France is currently in the phase of filtering names and wants to hold elections on time, leaving it to the political class to propose the name of the president. Based on past experience, it will not go against the trajectory of the political class. The desired president is one who is a consensus figure acceptable to all, non-provocative, and open to Arab and international engagement. It is explained that the shift of the Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt, who has always adapted to developments and aligned with the winds of change, aims to maintain his role as a balancing figure and to regain the advantage of choosing names that his father, Kamal Jumblatt, once enjoyed. The socialist leader has activated his radar, capturing signals of change and shifts, to form an alliance of choice and agreement with the Shiite duo, especially Speaker Nabih Berri.
Other political forces are positioned in a murky area, monitoring how developments unfold to define the nature and identity of the awaited president and Lebanon's role in a region currently buffeted by winds of change and transformations. The selection of a president will depend on results and the regional and international direction, which strengthens the hypothesis of a temporary vacuum unless a miracle occurs and the Lebanese agree on a figure to assume the presidency and rescue the nation from the quagmire of their disputes and conflicts, subsequently presenting this figure to the outside world for acceptance. Otherwise, Lebanon and its people will remain trapped in a raging volcano from which no one will be spared from its burning lava. The coming months are laden with developments, the sources conclude, and based on their outcomes, the president of Lebanon will be chosen... hopefully, the date is not far off!
