Political circles following the situation in Lebanon assess that with the conclusion of the parliamentary elections, the country has entered three consecutive constitutional tests and a living challenge:
- The first test involves the election of the Speaker of the Parliament, Deputy Speaker, and the Bureau of the Council. While the election of the Speaker is considered settled, the challenge lies in the number of votes he will receive, and the Deputy Speaker position is still undecided, pending an agreement on a single candidate by the new majority. In any case, this test will likely succeed, regardless of how the MPs vote, which will become clear in the first session. This situation unfolds in the context of a new parliamentary bloc that succeeded in the name of the revolution, and it remains difficult to predict its direction.
- The second test is the appointment of a Prime Minister and the formation of a government. Some still doubt that a government will be formed and expect the current Prime Minister Najib Mikati's government to continue in a caretaker capacity from this week until after the term of President Michel Aoun, during which the presidential office will also enter a vacuum. Conversely, some anticipate that a government could be formed due to the intersection of the Shiite duo and the presidency to establish a political government, especially after the elections have closed the revolutionary chapter. This trio needs a political government to address the challenges ahead, specifically, the presidency which requires a government led by MP Gebran Bassil to manage the presidential vacuum, paving the way for Aoun's exit from the presidency. It remains unclear how the new majority will act since it is not a single entity. Will they succeed in agreeing on a name to propose during binding consultations, or will March 8 benefit from its unity to put forward a proposal that keeps the formation process under its control? Losing control of this file would strip them of initiative and place them in a position of either rejection or acceptance without having the initiative in their hands.
- The third test is the election of a new president amid the absence of any indications so far that could prevent a vacuum from occurring in this process, given the differing political powers regarding the candidate to succeed Aoun. Even within March 8, there is no agreement on a single candidate among Hezbollah, Bassil, and Suleiman Franjieh, the head of the Marada Movement. The situation is similarly complex on the other side.
Sources expect Paris to re-engage, initiating mediation that begins with the appointment of a Prime Minister and urging the formation of a government. The critical situation in Lebanon cannot sustain prolonged vacancy but necessitates swift government formation, alongside legislative work and negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. If the French efforts succeed in the appointment and formation process, the focus will shift to the presidential elections to align parliamentary groups around a single name. However, if obstacles arise in the formation process, there are reports of a dialogue led by Paris aimed at agreeing on a four-item framework: the appointed Prime Minister's name, the government's structure, the president's name, and the necessary reforms.
Alongside this, the ongoing financial collapse will exert strong pressure on all political entities to compromise and make the necessary concessions to expedite the appointment, government formation, and subsequent election of a president, as the country can no longer endure a vacuum, and the priority is to halt the relentless collapse.
