With just weeks to go before the presidential elections that are supposed to bring a new president to the Baabda Palace, if constitutional deadlines are respected in a country where such deadlines are considered "subjective," the battle over names, candidates, and the required qualities for the expected president has intensified. In this context, positions emerged from Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rahi last Sunday, discussing the characteristics that should guide the choice of the one who will sit on the first chair of the state. He stated that the president must be a “seasoned political leader, experienced, respected, courageous, selfless, a neutral statesman in integrity, committed to nationalism, and above factions, camps, and parties."
According to well-informed political sources at “Al-Markazia,” this statement from Bkirki has effectively ruled out prominent candidates for the upcoming election, including the President of the Lebanese Forces Party Samir Geagea, the President of the Free Patriotic Movement MP Gibran Bassil, and the head of the Marada Movement Sleiman Frangieh, as they are all party leaders. While Geagea has publicly declared that he is not committed to the “me or no one” approach, and stated that he will not resort to obstructing or collapsing the country into a vacuum to reach Baabda, there remains significant concern regarding a repeat of the session obstruction experience by the March 8 coalition until one of their candidates Bassil or Geagea is elected president, much like what occurred during the election of President Michel Aoun.
However, sources currently rule out this scenario, considering that the qualities mentioned by the Patriarch, combined with the dire internal reality (economically and financially) and the international atmosphere, increase the chances of one individual within the country over others participating in the race for the palace, that individual being Army Commander General Joseph Aoun. He is a successful neutral figure in his field, who has shown dedication to keeping his institution alive and strong despite adversities. He has traveled the world to secure aid and support for its members to confront the severe internal crisis, making the Lebanese Army an institution that enjoys international trust, as international donors, both Arab and foreign, have insisted on channeling their aid to the army—be it medical, food, or humanitarian aid—over which he oversees distribution, given the institution's integrity and cleanliness, far removed from corruption allegations.
Additionally, there is considerable Arab and Western, especially American, support for the Lebanese Army, both financially, militarily, and logistically. Recently, Qatar decided to provide new assistance to the institution. On Tuesday, the U.S. Navy Central Command and the Lebanese Army began the steadfast union 2022 exercise, which will last two weeks in Lebanese territorial waters, focusing on maritime security operations, mine countermeasures, and explosive ordnance disposal procedures. U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea noted that “for 22 years, steadfast union exercises have established cooperation between our armed forces and ensured the Lebanese Army's readiness to execute its mission. Despite all the challenges facing the Lebanese Army this year amid Lebanon's economic crisis, they have demonstrated extraordinary commitment, and the United States will continue to provide our full support for all their efforts.”
Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of the U.S. Fifth Fleet and the Combined Maritime Forces, indicated that “this is an excellent opportunity to work with our capable Lebanese partners and enhance our relationship, as working together strengthens regional security and stability.”
Could General Aoun be the next president of Lebanon, transferring his successful military experience to the crumbling state and becoming the second “Fouad Chehab,” overseeing the reform and rescue process in Lebanon, which only needs reform and rescue today, diligently working to lift the sinking Lebanese vessel to safety once again? Or will the March 8 coalition and Iran not rest until they have a candidate from their narrow political house? Furthermore, given that electing the army commander to the presidency requires a constitutional amendment, will President Aoun agree to sign this amendment, or will they wait until the end of his term? Will the Lebanese people and the international community agree to wait until October 31 for the election while calls for respecting constitutional deadlines resound from all directions?
