Maronite Patriarch Bechara Raï was the first to initiate discussions about the presidential election by calling in mid-June for the presidential elections to occur before the term of the current president, Michel Aoun, ends within the two-month deadline stipulated by the constitution. He recently specified the characteristics that the next president should possess, stating that they must be "above alignments, axes, and parties, and should not pose a challenge to anyone."
Frangieh, the leader of the Marada Movement, is counting on reaching an understanding with Gibran Bassil, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, that will ensure Frangieh's candidacy for the presidency, or at the very least, lead to Bassil's withdrawal from the presidential race, even if he and his parliamentary bloc decide not to give him their votes. Despite the lack of official positions from the main political actors involved in the presidential entitlement regarding their candidate decisions thus far, with the constitutional deadline for electing a new president approaching between early September and the end of October, various factions find themselves obliged to begin internal discussions to determine how to handle the upcoming entitlement.
It does not seem that Bassil is inclined to run for the presidency, as he is aware that his chances of winning are very slim, given his conflicts with various political forces, except for Hezbollah, which alone would not be able to guarantee him the necessary parliamentary votes for his victory if it decides to endorse Bassil.
It is likely that Bassil will adopt a certain candidate to run in the election. The ongoing rapprochement between the two parties after years of estrangement and hostility, stemming from the last presidential elections which resulted in General Michel Aoun's victory, strengthens the assumption of Bassil's withdrawal in favor of Frangieh. The meeting that took place last week between MP Farid Haykal Khazen, close to Frangieh, and Bassil, despite their rocky relationship over the years, seems to continue the trend of rapprochement between the heads of the two movements, which began with the reconciliation facilitated by Hezbollah in April, following an invitation from Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah for a shared iftar dinner.
Both parties contested a "silent" electoral battle in May, primarily competing in the third district of North Lebanon, where they directed their campaigns mainly against the Lebanese Forces. Since then, the two parties have exchanged a series of positive messages, notably with Bassil stating during his electoral campaign: "No matter how much we differ from Frangieh, he remains authentic." In a practical response to this outreach, the MPs of the "Independent National Bloc," including Frid Haykal Khazen, Tony Frangieh, and William Tawk—aligned with Frangieh—decided to vote for the Free Patriotic Movement's candidate for the Deputy Prime Minister position, Elias Bou Saab, and for MP Alan Aoun for membership in the office of the parliament.
Although Bassil and Frangieh have yet to hold a bilateral meeting following the triad meeting with Nasrallah, the Bou Saab-Frangieh meeting and the Khazen-Bassil meeting pave the way for a strengthened relationship between the two parties. MP Asaad Dergham from the "Strong Lebanon" bloc headed by Bassil stated, "As the presidential deadline approaches, it is natural for consultations to begin, especially since Frangieh is a main presidential candidate; therefore, consulting with him is normal after the channels of communication between the two have been opened." He emphasized in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat that "the Free Patriotic Movement has not yet discussed the presidential entitlement, neither in the political body nor in the bloc, to take the appropriate position," adding, "Our interest at the end of the day is to ensure the election of our candidate or someone we support. Therefore, when we enter the constitutional period for electing a president, we will then finalize our position and decision."
Eyes are now on Hezbollah's position regarding the presidential entitlement and which candidate it will support. So far, it has not made any promises to its allies regarding this matter. Sources close to the party tell Asharq Al-Awsat, "We have not started our discussions on this issue, and when Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri sets a date for a session to elect a president, likely at the beginning of September, this will compel various forces to address a fait accompli, first by deciding whether or not to participate in the session, and then by determining their presidential candidate." They pointed out, "When Hezbollah decides on its candidate, it begins working to gather the necessary parliamentary votes for their victory, which it does not undertake until a final decision has been made."
Regarding whether the presidential entitlement is tied to external developments and the demarcation file, the sources simply stated: "If there is no war, it is likely the presidential elections will proceed on time. In the event of war, nothing can be taken for granted."
