The formation of the government has become a thing of the past following the scandalous exchanges between Prime Minister Najib Mikati and the "Free Patriotic Movement." It is unclear how the designated president will resume his fruitless attempts to propose a new cabinet after this row, which has unearthed issues of corruption and turned the supposed partnership between the president and the prime minister into ruins just weeks before Aoun's term ends.
What became evident after this dispute is that two conflicting agendas are clashing before the end of the term. Prime Minister Mikati, allied with President Nabih Berri, will not allow Gebran Bassil the formation of a government that serves as a continuation of the outgoing presidency. Aoun's team, for its part, will not grant Mikati a valuable arrangement, especially since losing his position within the government may occur during a period that could witness a lengthy presidential vacancy. Both parties are preparing for the presidential elections, each with their distinct calculations.
President Aoun is preparing to deal with the presidential elections from the angle of controlling the choice of the next president. He presents himself as a mandatory passage for selecting the presidential candidate, operating under the premise that "any name agreed upon for election must pass with my approval." This is revealed by sources familiar with what the "Free Patriotic Movement" is preparing for the upcoming phase. The sources indicate that Aoun will not transform either Mikati or Berri into presidential figures by accepting a government in which they hold the significant weight, and Mikati should not entertain the idea of inheriting the powers of the presidency, as this will not materialize.
The sources also mention that Mikati attempted to frame the disagreement over the government formation as a confrontation with Gebran Bassil, while in reality, the confrontation centers on powers. The presidential signature on the formation decree is within the president's domain, who swore to uphold the constitution. This oath compels him to reject the formation of an unbalanced government, irrespective of the pressures and types of extortion imposed by Mikati, who is wasting time until the end of the term, believing that this document can serve as leverage against Aoun.
Furthermore, the sources state that Berri and Mikati want a government that halts forensic auditing, modifies Lebanese conditions for border demarcation, and consolidates the absence of the presidential position from major entitlements. Aoun will not accept this, even if it costs him his term without a government being formed.
Regarding the presidential elections, the sources assert that Aoun will be a mandatory conduit for selecting the next president, contrary to the intentions of Mikati, Berri, and their allies. They reveal that French contacts are underway to formulate a presidential initiative that will be proposed in Beirut by a French envoy sent by President Emmanuel Macron. Signs of these communications have begun to manifest through outreach to Baabda. This initiative is coordinated between France and Saudi Arabia, which will speak in unison with unified proposals to avoid a presidential vacancy and elect a president within the constitutionally stipulated timeframe.
The sources indicate that Baabda will be the focal point of these communications, which will go beyond the fabricated governmental crisis, aimed at maintaining a caretaker government until the final hours of Aoun's departure from the presidential palace. This is in an attempt to strip the "Free Patriotic Movement" and the president of their leverage in the post-presidential term phase.
Thus, it is a power struggle in a transitional period that will witness further economic collapse. The failure to form a government will signify a postponement of any serious discussions with the International Monetary Fund, as well as impede any reform plan that could initiate an agreement with the fund. Consequently, this will further establish the characteristics of a failing state that continues to deteriorate amidst a persistent deadlock and an anticipated lengthy presidential vacancy, mirroring the ongoing governmental vacuum amid a barrage of corruption accusations.
