Parliamentary Elections in Kazakhstan and Expectations of Victory for the Ruling Party

Kazakhstan voters cast their ballots today, Sunday, in early parliamentary elections that are widely expected to strengthen President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's grip on power and further the process of reshaping the ruling elite that began after he took full control last year. Gaining a stronger mandate would help Tokayev navigate the regional turmoil caused by Russia's attack on Ukraine and the subsequent damage to trade, investment, and supply chains in the region. Although he officially became president three years ago, Tokayev (69) remained under the influence of his predecessor and former mentor Nursultan Nazarbayev until January 2022 when disagreements arose between them amid an attempted coup and violent unrest. Tokayev marginalized Nazarbayev after suppressing the political unrest in the oil-rich Central Asian state, dismissing several of his senior public sector aides, some of whom were later charged with corruption. Although he reshaped the government, the subsequent elections for the lower house, which was elected when Nazarbayev still held extensive powers and headed the ruling Nur Otan party, were scheduled for 2026. Unlike Nazarbayev, Tokayev chose not to lead the ruling party, which has since been renamed Amanat. However, polls indicate that he is likely to retain a comfortable majority and form the core of his support in the legislative council, especially in the absence of strong opposition parties participating in the elections.