A report by the American magazine "Newsweek" highlighted recent remarks by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, indicating that Russia's chances of victory in Ukraine are diminishing. He stated that the goals of the Russian leader can only be achieved now through military means, not through peace talks.
In this context, the magazine cited former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev, who publicly resigned due to the invasion of Ukraine last year. He mentioned that if Putin fails to win this war on his preferred terms, he may ultimately have to step down. Bondarev, who was an arms control expert at the Russian diplomatic mission in Geneva in May 2022, said, "Putin can be replaced... he is not a superhero, nor does he have superpowers... he is just an ordinary dictator." He added, "If we look at history, we will see that such tyrants have been replaced from time to time. They usually leave if they lose a war and cannot meet the needs of their supporters."
The magazine also presented three potential scenarios for Russia's defeat as mentioned by Vlad Mikhnin, an expert on post-communist transitions in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union at Oxford University.
The first scenario involves chaotic retreat due to a "devastating Ukrainian attack on one or several fronts," which would lead to "extreme panic among the 600,000 Russian settlers after 2014 in Crimea and the Russian collaborators in Donbas trying to escape," resulting in a "rapid collapse on the front lines."
The second scenario suggests that Russia may resort to a withdrawal from combat similar to what happened in World War I, specifically "like the collapse of the Russian army in 1916-1917."
Regarding the third scenario, the war in Ukraine could continue for another two years, with increasing discontent in Russia, a slow Russian retreat in some areas, and maintaining forces on the frontlines in others. Mikhnin commented on the third scenario by stating that, unlike the first two, it affords Putin a greater opportunity for maneuvering and thus maintaining his position.
Newsweek concluded with Bondarev's assertion that Putin should not be given any chance to market what has happened in Ukraine as a "victory," but rather, he must be "humiliated."
