Chance of Electing a President: 50/50

There are two paths that could emerge from the events in Gaza regarding the presidential matter, according to "Nidaa al-Watan." The first is the prolongation of the vacancy until the operation concludes and a new balance of power is established in Lebanon and the region. This means Lebanon will enter a cycle of heavy waiting, as all indicators suggest that the duration of this war will be long. The second path is to exploit the regional situation to advance the presidential file, even if the regional atmosphere is unclear. Contrary to what some might think, major countries have not abandoned Lebanon, and the first fruits of this non-abandonment are that Lebanon has so far been kept out of the Gaza war, with clashes along the border remaining contained. The difficulty of the regional situation may also exert pressure for the election of a new president. The Qatari player could move at any moment, and the United States is among the countries most concerned with stability in Lebanon. Iran may also find itself compelled to make concessions after the events in Gaza. Therefore, all these factors make the chances of electing a president 50/50, especially in a country where political changes can happen in minutes.