The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced today, Thursday, that forecasts based on data do not support or align with the International Energy Agency's predictions that demand for fossil fuels will peak or reach its highest point by 2030.
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol stated in an article in the Financial Times on Tuesday that the agency's latest estimates indicate that "this era of seemingly relentless growth will come to an end during this decade, with significant implications for the global energy sector and addressing climate change."
OPEC said in its statement today that what makes these forecasts "extremely dangerous" is that they often accompany calls to cease new investments in oil and gas. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais stated, "Such statements prepare the global energy system for a spectacular failure... This will lead to chaos in the energy sector on an unprecedented scale with severe consequences affecting economies and billions of people around the world."
OPEC noted that such forecasts do not take into account factors such as ongoing technological advancements in the oil and gas sector aimed at reducing harmful emissions and the fact that 80% of the global energy mix currently relies on fossil fuels, as it did three decades ago.
Birol argued in the article that "based on the policies currently being pursued by governments worldwide, even without any new climate change policies, demand for all three types of fossil fuels is expected to peak in the coming years. This is the first time a peak in demand for each type can be predicted during this decade, much earlier than many had anticipated." However, he added that the expected decline thereafter "will not be strong enough" to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, which is an ambitious target agreed by nations under the Paris Climate Agreement.
Al Ghais clarified in the OPEC statement, "Recognizing the challenges the world faces in eliminating energy poverty and meeting the growing demand for energy while ensuring costs remain manageable during the emission reduction process, OPEC does not exclude any energy sources or technologies, and believes that all stakeholders should do the same and acknowledge the realities of the energy landscape in both the short and long term."
