A survey conducted by "Reuters," released today, indicates that oil prices are expected to face difficulties this year as global economic conditions will limit gains that could be bolstered by the recovery in China and OPEC+ cuts. The survey, which included 37 economists and analysts, predicts that the average price of Brent crude will reach $83.03 per barrel in 2023, down from $84.73 in May. It is expected that the global average price of crude will be $83.28 in the third quarter before exceeding $86 in the following two quarters. Currently, crude prices hover around $75 per barrel, having fallen nearly 13 percent so far this year. It is also anticipated that U.S. crude prices will decline to $78.38 per barrel throughout this year, down from $79.20 per barrel last month.
Oli Hansen, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that the third quarter will be critical, "as high demand growth forecasts from OPEC and the International Energy Agency must materialize to avoid further downward pressure on prices." This week, Goldman Sachs also mentioned that rising interest rates will remain a "continuing burden" on oil.
While higher interest rates and weak economic readings from China affect oil markets, some analysts believe that prices are receiving little support from stimulus measures and supply cuts from OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia. The International Energy Agency stated this month that the OPEC+ production agreement sharply increases the likelihood of price rises, while Saudi Aramco predicted that demand from China and India would offset recession risks in advanced countries.
Ian Moore, a chief researcher at Bernstein, remarked that there are "few signs of weakened Chinese demand for oil, even if the post-lockdown boost disappointed some investors. Chinese refineries recorded record output levels in the first five months of this year." He added that growth is expected to "increase as economic activity continues to expand, albeit at a slower pace."
According to the survey, global oil demand is expected to grow between one and two million barrels per day. Five participants in the survey forecast a supply deficit in the second half of this year. Data from "Refinitiv Icon" indicates that this deficit will occur even after Russian seaborne oil exports reach a four-year record, as Moscow meets demand from India, China, and Turkey. Most survey participants expect the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to take measures to maintain minimum oil prices at $80.
