Israeli security estimates indicate that a ceasefire with Lebanon is possible, provided the conflict in Gaza transitions from an intensive war to ongoing security operations. According to a report from the Israeli website "Walla," Hezbollah has achieved successes due to the skill and professionalism of its members, but this has changed, and the effectiveness of their targeted attacks has quickly declined. The report states, "Rockets are Hezbollah's main tool in its limited campaign against Israel. The party easily consumes a very large arsenal of weapons through cells of all armed organizations in Lebanon, including elements of Hamas operating in southern Lebanon. In contrast, the efficacy is very low due to the Iron Dome, as the rockets fired are statistical weapons and do not yield the expected results, unlike precise targeting."
The report also notes that on the Israeli side, rockets incite fear, particularly due to the scenes of heavy salvos and significant destruction in settlements and cities. In fact, these rockets generate immense public pressure. The report highlights that Hezbollah scores points for itself when it succeeds in penetrating the Israeli army's air defense system, adding, "However, in practice, most of the party's drones fall in open areas or are intercepted within Lebanese territory, resulting in weak effectiveness."
The report continues: "The Israeli attack on Baalbek a few days ago was painful for the party, as it targeted drone warehouses. In reality, the party does not possess many drones, and any strike of this kind will deprive it of its capabilities, while its members will subsequently fear accessing the warehouses and retrieving the drones." It mentions that the war of attrition against Hezbollah continues, but the fall of any rocket in a crowded area of civilians in Israel could lead to a significant reaction, and from there everything could deteriorate into a much larger war.
According to the report, the possibility of reaching a temporary agreement with the party is likely; however, if Hezbollah continues its activities, there is no option but escalation and moving towards the establishment of a security zone within Lebanese territory. It concludes, "Everyone can assess how the battle will start, but no one on either side of the border has an accurate estimate of how things might end."
