Just after French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna departed Lebanon the day before yesterday, having informed officials about the dangers looming from the south, news emerged indicating that the United States has directly intervened in an effort to replace war with diplomacy. However, these developments that prioritize dialogue over military action have not altered the field reality at the southern borders. According to reports in the evening, several southern towns were subjected to Israeli shelling at a pace reminiscent of violence similar to that seen in the July 2006 war. In contrast, "Hezbollah" claimed to have carried out a series of operations against Israeli positions, reporting the death of three members.
What are the political developments that shifted expectations yesterday? Following the talks held by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Israel, he heard from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant that "Israel is determined to push Hezbollah forces back about 10 kilometers from the border as part of a diplomatic deal to end tensions with Lebanon,” according to U.S. news site Axios, citing three Israeli and American officials. In exchange, the U.S. administration is deeply concerned that the escalating border skirmishes could lead to a comprehensive war worse than the conflict in Gaza, the site reported.
Israeli officials indicated that Netanyahu and Galant told Austin that Israel cannot accept that tens of thousands of its citizens have been displaced for several months due to the security situation on the other side of the border. They added that Israel wants an agreement that includes pushing Hezbollah forces far enough away so they cannot fire on Israeli villages and towns along the border and cannot carry out raids like the one Hamas conducted on October 7. These officials stated that the Israeli Prime Minister and Defense Minister informed Austin that as part of this agreement, "they do not want to allow Hezbollah" to return to its positions along the border that Israel has destroyed over the past two months.
Axios highlighted that Austin informed Netanyahu and Galant that the Biden administration understands Israeli concerns and will push for a peaceful solution, asking Israel to give time and space for diplomacy and to refrain from taking steps that might exacerbate tensions. In this context, Israeli officials mentioned that Netanyahu and Galant "said Israel is willing to give diplomacy a chance, but they want to see progress in the coming weeks."
In a related context, at this critical juncture facing Lebanon, especially the south, the topic of the military institution remains a focal point, as observed in a cabinet session according to the newspaper "Nidaa al-Watan." This session concluded with 19 ministers approving 14 laws passed by the parliament last Friday, including a law to extend the term of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, which will come into effect after its publication in the official gazette. This move came to complete the defeat suffered by the leader of the "Free Patriotic Movement," MP Gibran Bassil, in the parliament.
The session did not witness the introduction of a new item on the agenda regarding the appointment of a new chief of staff for the army to fill military council vacancies. However, the letter from caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati to Defense Minister Major General Morris Salim and the latter's response, which was similar, highlighted tensions between the two parties, indicating that matters might be heading towards appointments that surpass the Defense Minister, who awaits the outcome of the challenge that might be posed against the law extending the "commander's" term and other security agency leaders.
In preparation for the upcoming military appointments in the government, a communication channel opened yesterday between the "Progressive Socialist Party" and the "Marada Movement," which had previously objected to these appointments within the government. A delegation from the party, led by MP Wael Abou Faour, visited MP Tony Franjieh at his residence in Beirut yesterday. Sources told "Nidaa al-Watan": "The atmosphere was positive, and we sensed their commitment to the military institution and its regularity."
Despite the fact that this cabinet session is the last of the year, ministerial sources indicated that another session is expected before the New Year if efforts succeed in reaching an agreement on a list of appointments.
