Less than a week remains until the deadline set by French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian for Lebanese MPs to respond in writing to two questions regarding the specifications of the next president and his work program. Despite the insult inflicted by the Elysee envoy on Lebanon, it has early become clear that what he requested was generic, essentially mere words, as clearly demonstrated in the response from the "Development and Liberation" bloc led by President Nabih Berri, which was the first response from the opposition that will refrain from replying further.
While awaiting clarity on a new phase of the French initiative next month, which seems likely to fail, speculation has circulated that the quintet committee for Lebanon is preparing to take action after exhausting the opportunity granted to the French side. According to this speculation, the committee will approach the Lebanese presidential file with "firmness," involving the imposition of sanctions on those obstructing the electoral process.
In a preliminary survey by "Reach of the Nation," it became evident that the parliamentary blocs set to send their written responses to the French embassy before the end of this month include: "Loyalty to the Resistance," "Strong Lebanon," "Democratic Gathering," "National Accord," "National Moderation," and the "Independent Parliamentary Gathering."
How does the political scene surrounding the French initiative appear at this stage? Sources well-informed told "Reach of the Nation," "All indicators suggest that the second version of the French initiative is heading towards failure, as there are no elements for its success. The reason for the failure is that no country can act as a mediator while also being biased towards one side."
They added: "Since the launch of the French initiative and up until Le Drian's messages, there has been confusion and a departure from diplomatic norms and dealings between states, showing bias. Given all these factors, it appears that France lacks the elements of power and influence in Lebanon; French performance is also marred by confusion from political forces that use France to serve their interests.
Conversely, the opposition wants the international community to be consistent with the Security Council, Arab League decisions, and protect the Lebanese Constitution; thus, the opposition has decided not to respond to Le Drian's message as it would be a violation of proper dealings with the Lebanese state. More than one group seemingly referred to as reformist MPs is not enthusiastic about sending a message to Le Drian, indicating that there is no longer anyone banking on this initiative."
The sources continued: "Initially, after Le Drian returned to Lebanon, there was some hope that this return would open the door to escape the presidential tunnel, but given the visible weakness and confusion, one could consider that the second version of the French initiative has ended, making any future return by him merely formal, with no remaining bets. The main bet now lies on some change, whether internal or external, and at this moment, one cannot speak of a change unless Gebran Bassil decides to adopt Sleiman Frangieh. He is showing indicators in this direction, but he will not commit in this regard. Of course, we hear some voices claiming that the agreement between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement does not obligate other parties, but on the contrary, it will lead to a political restlessness that may negatively affect this duo."
