In recent weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin has openly hinted that he would be willing to discuss ending the war in Ukraine but on Moscow's terms. A draft of a peace treaty prepared by Russian and Ukrainian negotiators approximately six weeks into the conflict has revealed the type of deal Putin was seeking at that time. Western officials and analysts have stated that the Kremlin continues to adhere to its original objectives even after two years of fighting, including transforming Ukraine into a neutral state. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, the terms Russia is likely seeking now are expected to be tougher.
The complete document, consisting of 17 pages and dated April 15, 2022, outlines how negotiators from both sides sought to end the fighting by agreeing to transform Ukraine into a "permanently neutral state not participating in military blocs." It would also prevent the country from rebuilding its army with Western support, leaving Crimea under effective Russian control.
The document also shows the deep concessions that negotiators from both the Russian and Ukrainian sides were considering while Kyiv was struggling in the early weeks of the war. The draft treaty stated that while Ukraine would be allowed to seek European Union membership, it would not be permitted to join military alliances like NATO. Moreover, it would not be allowed to host foreign weapons on its territory, and the size of the Ukrainian army would be reduced to a specified level.
Crimea, already under Russian control, would remain under Moscow’s influence and would not be considered neutral, according to the draft document. Furthermore, Moscow pushed for the Russian language to be treated equally with the Ukrainian language in government and courts, a provision that Kyiv did not sign.
The future of the eastern Ukrainian region controlled by Russia since 2014 was not addressed in the draft, leaving it for Putin and Zelensky to finalize in direct talks, which never took place. The draft stipulated that foreign powers would be responsible for ensuring the treaty's implementation, and these powers included the United States, the United Kingdom, China, France, and Russia. These countries would be charged with the responsibility to defend Ukraine’s neutrality in the event of a violation of the treaty.
However, while the treaty remains in effect, the guarantors would be required to "terminate treaties and international agreements that conflict with the permanent neutrality of Ukraine," including any promises of military assistance. International security guarantees would not apply to Crimea and Sevastopol.
At the same time, the draft included a prohibition on foreign weapons "including missile weapons of any type and armed forces and formations." Other issues remained unresolved, notably what would happen if Ukraine were attacked, as Russia wanted all guarantor states to agree on a response, suggesting that a unified response would be unlikely if Russia itself were the aggressor.
In the event of an attack on Ukraine, Ukrainian negotiators wanted to close its airspace, which would require the guarantor states to impose a no-fly zone and provide arms, a clause to which Russia did not agree. Meanwhile, Russia wanted to add Belarus as a guarantor, whereas Ukraine sought to include Turkey.
