Few Lebanese expected that, nearly two years into the crisis, the dollar would reach 30,000 Lebanese pounds; rather, they couldn't believe the forecasts. However, Lebanon is a country of surprises, and as days pass, the black market exchange rate has surpassed 30,000 L.L. and may approach 40,000 L.L., with some not ruling out a rise to 50,000 L.L. Beyond this, there is an even grimmer scenario. Former head of the Banking Control Commission, Samir Hammoud, envisions the dollar hitting six figures in the near future, stating: "I do not expect it; I see it right before my eyes." He adds in an interview with MTV: "I fear that transactions will be conducted only in foreign currency, leading to a withdrawal of the Lebanese pound from circulation."
Hammoud believes two key factors will determine the dollar's price in the coming period: the vacancy of the presidency and its implications, and the vacancy of the governorship of the Central Bank of Lebanon, which is expected within about ten months. He states: "The presidential election is an important stage, and we do not wish to witness a vacuum as this creates an imbalance. However, the vacancy in the governorship of the Central Bank is even more significant, which might cause the dollar to reach six figures. I hope I am wrong."
Hammoud affirms that "the crisis lies in the balance of payments and the loss of people's trust in the banking sector," emphasizing the importance of rebuilding trust in the sector, transferring funds back to Lebanon, and placing savings in banks. He notes that "there is no solution for the Lebanese pound and stability except through the banking sector and ensuring the return of trust and placing savings in banks."
However, given the current trajectory and the anticipated presidential vacuum, will the dollar reach 50,000 L.L. within a month and a half? How will Lebanese lives change? Economic expert Louis Khabek believes that "if the dollar reaches 50,000, the lives of the Lebanese will not change dramatically, but they may worsen slightly, although those with income in Lebanese pounds will be negatively affected." He stresses, in an interview with MTV, the need to adapt to the new lifestyle, as the period we are experiencing is not transitional but will be long. He states: "I would not be surprised if the dollar price reaches 50,000; the dollar is 'rising,' and no one knows how far it will go," pointing out that "the problem with prices is due to chaos and poor oversight."
