Sources following the activities of the French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian have pointed out deep disparities and disagreements between him and his counterparts in the Quintet Committee, a sentiment echoed by former MP Walid Jumblatt in a recent media interview, according to "Al-Anbaa" online. The sources indicated that there is a lack of alignment in ideas between Le Drian and the other committee members regarding their vision for resolving the presidential crisis, with the other members sticking to the decisions made during the Doha meeting, particularly concerning the specifications for the president.
Moreover, the sources linked the anticipated visit by American mediator Amos Hochstein to Lebanon at the beginning of next month with Le Drian's expected visit in the latter half of September, viewing it as a positive intersection that may influence the internal situation despite the celebratory nature of Hochstein's visit related to Total's drilling commencement in block 9. This notion was also highlighted by oil and gas exploration expert Lori Hatayan in her remarks to "Al-Anbaa" online, where she viewed the visit as part of the agenda for maritime border demarcation and the celebration of drilling operations in block 9.
She recalled discussions in 2018 about directing efforts toward demarcation and encouraging oil activities upon signing the contract despite a disputed area in block 9, and noted that an agreement had been made to operate outside that zone. By 2020, there was a diminishing interest in that part, with renewed focus on the entire border demarcation process with Lebanon, which had agreed at the time to sign the terms of reference conditional on Total's return; credit for this achievement belongs to the French and Americans.
As for the land demarcation, Hatayan indicated that it appears complicated, being a "political matter related to Shebaa Farms and Kfar Shouba Hills," and requires an understanding with the Syrians, who might raise the Golan issue. However, the Democratic administration in the United States is not prepared to open a dialogue with Syria, thus diminishing the concern for land border demarcation, even though it was mentioned in the framework agreement that President Nabih Berri referred to regarding the connection between land and maritime paths. While awaiting clarity on the implications of the American visit and the French return, the relevant local powers seem to be further entangled in a game of wasting time, depriving the Lebanese of any potential opportunities to avoid greater risks.
