House Speaker Nabih Berri does not talk to his visitors about a large-scale war, but rather about an aggression that Israel threatens to carry out. He responds that he will be on the front lines alongside Hezbollah to defend Lebanon. Berri's remarks align with those of Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah during his recent appearance, stating that his party is fully prepared to respond if war is imposed on them. There are no Lebanese initiatives towards Israel like in 2006; rather, there is a commitment to the rules of engagement that Israel itself breaches, according to what Berri tells his visitors. However, this alone is insufficient to deter Tel Aviv if it finds a need, after completing its operations in Rafah, to shift to the Lebanese front, as reported in "An-Nahar."
In reality, Berri's fears and warnings about a critical month stem not only from the growing Israeli threats or the escalating assaults but also from the significant international obligations this month brings, as per those close to him. The Americans are preparing for a highly contested presidential election, and Thursday will witness a presidential debate between the current president Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump. On the European side, both France and the UK will hold their elections, with all the potential changes these events could bring at the level of authorities and foreign policies. Subsequently, the world will enter the summer vacation period, during which all initiatives will be suspended, and Lebanon will fall outside the realm of international attention.
This scenario that worries Berri pushes him to mobilize all forces both locally and internationally through his ongoing communications and follow-ups to create opportunities for diplomatic efforts to curb the escalation and cool down heated heads in preparation for reaching a political solution. In this context, he affirmed Lebanon’s commitment to implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Berri's circles deny any discussions exchanged by his visitors regarding informing US presidential envoy Amos Hochstein that Lebanon demands Israel withdraw eight kilometers from the border in exchange for asking Hezbollah to withdraw a similar distance, framing the remarks as responding to a question rather than as a proposal exchange. He has not yet received any response from Hochstein, and there are no expectations of a visit from him before the situation in Gaza crystallizes, which practically means that the settlement concerning Lebanon related to Gaza has not yet matured, according to "An-Nahar."
