New developments pave the way to suggest that Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati will form a new government, which will replace President Michel Aoun and assume full powers after his departure from the Baabda Palace on midnight of October 31. Thus, Mikati will succeed Aoun and will hold authority during the interim period. It also appears that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri shares Mikati's urgency regarding the formation of a new government or legitimizing the resigned government through the necessary constitutional mechanisms, in order to block any other options that the presidential team might resort to. They are cautiously proceeding based on a joint approach, implying that no achievements bearing "the mark of the era" will be realized in its final days.
Meanwhile, all indicators suggest that socio-economic shocks are starting to weigh heavily, particularly regarding security. It is unknown whether Aoun will leave the palace if the situation worsens, as he stated about his potential departure: "If October 31 is a normal day." All of this comes as Lebanon truly hangs by a thread, following bank incursions yesterday, alongside the failure to approve the public budget and lack of quorum during the voting session due to the opposition blocs' actions. Perhaps even more alarming was the statement from Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah on the occasion of Ashura, asserting that "we cannot allow the extraction of oil and gas from the Karish field before Lebanon receives its legitimate demands, and these demands are not defined by us but are a matter for the Lebanese state."
In response, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz warned that the Israeli state would respond vigorously to any provocations and is ready for a conflict in Lebanon. Here, information from Lebanese military sources suggests that both parties—the party and Israel—may find themselves engaged in limited exchanges of fire along the southern border.
