Analysts and sources in OPEC+ have stated that the group, which includes Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), along with allies including Russia, will hold an online meeting on Thursday. They may implement further changes to the oil supply reduction agreement already in place until 2024 to support the market. OPEC+ postponed a meeting originally scheduled for November 26. Sources within the group indicated that this was due to a disagreement over production levels among African oil-producing nations; however, they later reported that the group is nearing a resolution on this matter. Negotiations regarding production quotas within OPEC+ have often been challenging, with the last major discussion occurring in June.
**What has already been agreed upon?**
After prolonged negotiations in June, the OPEC+ alliance extended its oil production cuts by 3.66 million barrels per day, or approximately five percent of global daily demand, until the end of 2024. Additionally, Saudi Arabia voluntarily reduced its production by one million barrels per day until the end of December 2023. Russia's oil export reductions will continue at 300,000 barrels per day until the end of 2023. The group aims to produce 40.58 million barrels per day next year after adjusting the baselines and targets for several countries compared to the levels in effect this year. Targets were lowered for some African members in 2024 to align with reduced production levels. The agreement also allows the United Arab Emirates, which is working to boost its production capacity, to increase output in 2024. As of October 2023, OPEC+ production levels stood at 38.19 million barrels per day, including additional voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia totaling 1.3 million barrels per day. It remains unclear whether these cuts will be extended into 2024.
**What might happen on Thursday?**
A source from OPEC+ anticipates a "further collective cut option" on Thursday, without providing details. Earlier this month, sources within the alliance indicated that OPEC+ is considering additional cuts. In June, OPEC+ stated that the group could adjust 2024 targets for Nigeria, Angola, and Congo following reviews conducted by external analysts. Angola and Congo are producing below their 2024 targets due to reduced production capacity, while some estimates suggest that Nigeria has approached or exceeded its production target for 2024 in recent months. Some analysts, including those from Energy Aspects, expect Saudi Arabia to extend its voluntary production cut of one million barrels per day at least into the first quarter of 2024.
