The BBC network reported on an article published in the Israeli newspaper "Haaretz" titled "If Israel Strikes Hezbollah, Iran Will Intervene, and Thus America Will Be Drawn Into the Conflict." Writer Alon Pinkas states that since October 7, the primary concern of the United States has been to prevent the Gaza war from expanding in the region.
The author notes that "despite the gradual escalation of the low-intensity war between Israel and Hezbollah, it is not a full-blown war yet, and here Washington sees that the concept of 'connected vessels' governs the course of events in the region." In simpler terms, he explains, escalation in Gaza means escalation in Lebanon, and stopping escalation in Gaza means stopping escalation in Lebanon. Only then can diplomatic efforts address the outstanding issues between Israel and Lebanon, according to the BBC.
According to the writer, Israel not only rejected the theory of "connected vessels" but also justified its escalation with Hezbollah as a logical measure to protect its security. Pinkas believes that "Hezbollah" has weakened Israeli deterrence and reversed the balance of power, while simultaneously suggesting that both "Israel and Hezbollah pretend to control the level of escalation, each assuming that the other will refrain from tipping the scales and starting a full-scale war."
He describes Israelis who believe that "Hezbollah" has been deterred as the same "geniuses" who thought that "Hamas" was deterred before October 7. In this context, the article's author sees these individuals as equally "arrogant" as those calling for Israel to deliver a "final blow" to Hezbollah.
The writer does not dispute whether or not to launch a military operation but urges caution before any reckless decision at this sensitive stage. He quotes Einstein to define madness: "Madness is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
Ultimately, the false assumption is to consider that any escalation in Lebanon is containable or limited in duration, but nothing guarantees that Iran won't become involved, whether intentionally or through miscalculation. Here, the United States could be drawn into the conflict militarily, according to the author.
He concluded by stating, "This is not just a negative regional development with far-reaching consequences outside the region, but also a conflict that U.S. President Joe Biden does not need less than five months before the upcoming November elections."
