It seems we are on the brink of an "artificial" phase, breaking the theory that providing political confidence is the gateway to solving the dilemma of the black market dollar and beginning its decline, which would reflect relief for the people.
Confidence lists? The multiple positives surrounding the maritime border demarcation file in the south, for about a week now, have not tangibly reflected in reducing the black market dollar until now, despite the regional and international implications of developments in this file. Consequently, the political confidence that this demarcation could provide joins the lists of trust that were not provided by the formation of governments between 2019 and 2021, and the trust that the recent parliamentary elections failed to establish in the country and in foreign perceptions of it, which has not led to any solution for the rising exchange rate of the black market dollar.
Recognition and Commitment
A well-informed source emphasized that "the game of the black market dollar in Lebanon is not linked to any trust that could be provided by any political development, but rather to a global corruption network and another internal one that moves it through applications and platforms, benefiting those involved with huge sums daily." He explained in a conversation with "Akhbar Al-Yawm" agency that "the maritime demarcation is part of the political and security game in the region. The more prominent party currently claiming victory in the demarcation battle is Hezbollah, which states that it has imposed its conditions on the enemy. This is a clear acknowledgment of the Israeli state and a commitment to the international ceasefire at the borders, especially at sea. This means that there is no longer any value to either drones or missiles."
Bargaining
The source pointed out that "with the maritime demarcation, Hezbollah has entered into an internal bargain, even before it becomes international, requiring the facilitation of forming a government and electing a president. This explains the remarks from its politicians regarding the need for a government and an agreement on a mechanism for electing a president that includes everyone. Meanwhile, the party had acted in previous years on the basis that if you want to form a government or elect a president, you must speak with us first."
He added: "The Lebanese signature on the demarcation agreement requires an authentic government. Therefore, the current pressures are focused on forming a government. This is a game understood by (head of the National Movement) MP Gebran Bassil, who is concurrently pressuring Hezbollah so that the game of government and presidency does not slip entirely from his grasp. The result is that we are at a critical stage concerning the governmental game, and the chances of forming a government soon are very high for a simple reason: everyone wants to sign the demarcation agreement, especially before the end of President Michel Aoun's term."
Resilience of the Agreement
The source noted that "the political exploitation of the maritime demarcation file has already begun in Israel, through mutual accusations among several parties, while former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserts that he will not proceed with this if he returns to power after the Israeli elections." He concluded: "Based on the above, we also ask how long this agreement can withstand. The world is moving towards supporting strict policies, as exemplified by what is happening in Europe and what recently occurred in Italy. This might translate into a victory for the extreme right in the Israeli elections, which will impact the Israeli foreign policy, including the resilience of the commitment to maritime demarcation with Lebanon, or not, with the potential for Hezbollah to bring Lebanon to a 'would I have known' phase in that case."
