The agreement on border demarcation between Lebanon and Israel has created a positive atmosphere domestically, awaiting a practical translation of this agreement, particularly in economic terms. Despite the importance of this agreement, Lebanon still faces crucial deadlines in the coming days, most notably the formation of a new government and the election of a president. However, the likelihood of a presidential vacuum remains the most realistic, especially given the current stagnation and ambiguity, along with the ongoing game of positioning within the parliamentary dome.
How will a vacuum affect the security situation? Military and security expert, retired Brigadier General and head of the Middle East Center for Studies and International Relations, Hicham Jaber, confirms that "the current caretaker government cannot take responsibility after President Michel Aoun's term ends because it is a resigned government. Therefore, it is essential to form a new government to take control if a president is not elected, according to the constitution." He adds, in a conversation with MTV, "If the worst-case scenario occurs, which is the failure to form a government coupled with a presidential vacuum, matters will head towards economic, social, and possibly security collapse."
Jaber further indicates that "in case of a vacuum, we expect Army Commander General Joseph Aoun to 'do something' because the military institution is responsible for protecting the nation and assuming all authorities, duties, and ministries to ensure the continuity of governance. A state cannot exist without a 'head' to manage it." He also notes that "in this situation, and to avoid chaos, the army will implement a strict security plan and tighten measures in various regions and borders to ensure that no security breaches occur, preventing parties from exploiting the vacuum, including potential terrorist activities; as well as disturbances and assaults that some might take advantage of to disrupt the situation, which could lead to a security 'decline' rather than a complete 'collapse.'"
Regarding the possibility of the army commander reaching the presidency, Jaber states: "His name is always on standby, meaning he is present because he enjoys international consensus. The election process is waiting for the green light and the regional and international decision for a suitable consensus candidate, and General Aoun has all the qualifications."
