It has become clear that the positivity surrounding the files of border demarcation and government formation at the beginning of this week has dissipated by its end. While Lebanon is still awaiting an official American response to the amendments requested on the draft maritime border agreement following Israel's refusal, the formation of the government is experiencing stagnation despite efforts by "Hezbollah" to bring the viewpoints of President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati closer together, allowing the cabinet formation to be completed before Aoun's term ends at the end of this month. Sources close to President Aoun told "Asharq Al-Awsat" that "the government issue is currently on hold, and there is no new development," noting that "the president's remarks on Friday about the priority of electing a new president also indicate a retreat in the government file."
During a meeting with the Assistant Secretary-General of the Arab League Ambassador Hossam Zaki, Aoun stated that "the absolute priority should currently be to elect a new president for the republic, as the presence of a president is essential for forming a new government and not vice versa."
Sources from Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s camp considered Aoun's remarks to confirm that there is no intention to facilitate the formation process and that there is a lack of responsiveness from the presidential team regarding Mikati's efforts in a phase where there is no luxury for back and forth or raising political ceilings. The sources told "Asharq Al-Awsat": "Discussions about the government file have become embarrassing as the other team refuses to yield from its crippling conditions and wants to preempt the formation of the government by seeking prior commitments, which is something Mikati will not accept, even though he agreed to introduce amendments to the current government to strengthen it, while he is convinced that the priority should be electing a new president for the republic."
The negative atmosphere also extends to the presidential election file, with the latest indications confirming that negotiations among all forces are stuck in a vicious cycle, making the fate of the second session to elect a president, which Speaker Nabih Berri has scheduled for next Thursday, similar to its predecessor, with the likelihood of failing to secure a quorum not ruled out, especially since there is a nearly assured tendency among the deputies of the "Free Patriotic Movement" to boycott it commemorating the events of October 13, 1990, when the military government president at the time, now President Aoun, was removed from Baabda Palace after being bombed by Syrian planes. Two deputies from the "Movement" told "Asharq Al-Awsat" that the tendency is to boycott.
While it is expected that the deputies of the "Shiite duo," meaning the deputies of the Amal Movement and "Hezbollah," will again vote with blank ballots in the upcoming session due to the lack of agreement within the bloc associated with "Hezbollah" on a single candidate for the presidential battle, consultations continue within the opposition bloc, which is also experiencing divisions that do not seem to be able to overcome in the coming days.
"Change" deputies have decisively decided not to vote for the "forces," "Kataeb," and Progressive Socialist Party candidate Michel Moawad. They are in communication with the three deputies from Sidon—Osama Saad, Abdul Rahman al-Bizri, and Sherebel Massad—to choose one of the following three names to vote for: former ministers Ziad Baroud and Nasif Kitti, and former deputy Salah Hani.
Independent Sunni deputies also do not seem inclined to vote for Moawad either. According to member of the "National Moderation Bloc" Deputy Ahmed al-Khair, the current trend is to once again put forth a paper with the name "Lebanon," with a final decision to be made during a meeting that the Bloc will hold on Wednesday. Al-Khair indicates in a statement to "Asharq Al-Awsat" that the deputies of the "National Moderation" have expanded their circle of consultations with all blocs to try to narrow down the space for differentiation regarding the presidency. He added: "There is no doubt that the required presidential qualities are present in Deputy Moawad, but we do not believe that there is a possibility to ensure his election. However, I assure you that if there are 74 votes in favor of Moawad in any election session, we are ready to secure the quorum." Al-Khair warns that "if we enter into presidential vacancy, the country will be open to all possibilities, which necessitates holding presidential elections on time according to the constitution."
All forces agree on the need to elect a president before Aoun's term ends on October 31, without taking practical steps to ensure that. In this context, Deputy Hassan Azeddine from "Hezbollah" stated: "If we continue this fragmentation and division among the political forces in the parliament, we will not be able to elect a president for the republic," urging "all powers to reconsider for the sake of the nation's and citizens' interests and to concede from conditions and counter-conditions so that we do not fall into a vacuum in the presidency, which will lead us to options and actions that are not beneficial and would lead us to a dead end."
