There is a real crisis facing Lebanon, but it originally stems from Syria, socially and demographically, after everything that has politically, militarily, and security-wise affected it. Recently, Lebanon has witnessed significant flows of refugees from Syria into its territories. These recent waves occurred after the Arab countries "initiated" a normalization process with the Syrian regime. While the return of refugees was a primary condition for normalization, Damascus has not provided any facilitation regarding this serious matter. After Jordan was once the most enthusiastic about this, it has not found receptive ears in Syria. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad conditioned the lifting of sanctions and financial aid under the pretext of reconstruction to facilitate the return of refugees. The Jordanian approach has failed, just as previous agreements aimed at stopping drug trafficking have not succeeded.
In parallel to this stagnation, the number of refugees fleeing to Lebanon has increased. The Lebanese army is taking measures to manage the situation, but it remains extremely difficult to control the entire border unless the Syrian regime undertakes similar actions, which it has not done. Among the reasons driving refugees to flow into Lebanon in large numbers is the dire economic and living conditions in Syria. Therefore, people seek asylum anywhere else. Some point to the regime facilitating the asylum process, suggesting that what is happening is an organized effort with the aim of applying pressure on Lebanon and the international community through it, especially as Lebanese sentiments are quickly reacting to the need to control illegal migration by sea towards Europe.
**Mutual Extortion**
What is happening leads to the creation of a Lebanese stance against refugees, based on raids and discovering weapons in their possession in some camps. This will shift the discussion towards the need for a party capable of regulating this influx, potentially calling on Hezbollah to redeploy its forces along the Lebanese-Syrian border to curb refugee flow and maintain internal Lebanese stability, protecting it demographically. Increasing pressure on refugees in Lebanon will likely lead to one outcome – reinforcing their return to the Syrian regime seeking protection, within a perceived framework. Another objective is to utilize this file to exert pressure on the international community, specifically the Europeans and Americans, leading to a mutual extortion scenario between Lebanon and Syria.
Failing to address this issue seriously and leaving it unresolved could foster a hostile Lebanese attitude towards refugees and any supportive environment for them. This would engender hostility across all regions and among all sects, which will feel threatened either demographically or in terms of living conditions, employment opportunities, education, health, or infrastructure. This situation could create a new division that Hezbollah could leverage, presenting itself as necessary for the protection of the Lebanese reality.
**Open Gates**
Some argue that leaving Lebanon open to Syrian realities due to the influx of refugees primarily aims to increase pressure on the Lebanese interior, especially since there are no waves of refugees flowing to Jordan or Turkey. Some information indicates that large numbers enter Lebanon from Eastern Syria, knowing that Iraq is closer to them than Lebanon, and that the transit involves passing through areas controlled by both opposition and regime forces. This means that such movement cannot occur without the regime’s tacit approval, placing this development within the scope of attracting external interest as a response to the international community's policy of neglect toward both Lebanon and Syria.
