Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri is actively pursuing presidential dialogue, and as usual, he does not say "fooled" until the measure is right. Those close to him confirm that he wants a new president for the republic quickly, as he is "eager to see the president." While Berri's consistent call and unified stance in the presidential election process is for consensus, those closely acquainted with his work and activities clarify that his insistence on consensus does not mean delaying the achievement of this entitlement. Rather, it stems from the belief that only consensus will bring about the desired president; otherwise, the country will witness another six years worse than the current presidential term.
Berri remains committed to calling for electoral sessions despite the lack of consensus even within the same team, whether it is March 8 or the opposition. As for Berri's team, they believe they do not belong to a specific team but rather are with all Lebanese parties and do not necessarily have to align with Hezbollah on the presidential matter. This was exemplified in 2016 when Berri was one of the most prominent opponents of General Michel Aoun's election as president. He knew that the presidential settlement that brought Aoun to power at that time would not be reliable. Subsequent events proved this, both regarding the failure of the settlement between Aoun and former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, as well as the "Maarab Agreement" between Aoun, his ally Gibran Bassil, and Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces.
Neither the settlement with Hariri lasted nor was the Maarab Agreement implemented when Aoun reached the presidency. Before the settlement, which was crafted after two and a half years of presidential vacuum imposed by Hezbollah to bring Aoun to power, Berri proposed a "comprehensive presidential basket" that included agreement on the president, a government with its premier and allocations, reforms, and even a new electoral law. This was aimed at securing a minimal national consensus for the new president to accompany him in his term and to realize the other components of the basket. However, Berri's "basket of agreements," stemming from his proposals at the dialogue table in May 2016, was met with rejection from both the Free Patriotic Movement and the March 14 coalition at the time, which considered it a Hezbollah basket targeting a constitutional conference.
Bkirki also rejected Berri's basket, deeming it unconstitutional and infringing on the president's powers. This led to a thunderous sermon by Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi against the "comprehensive basket" in October 2016, asserting that "it is forbidden to accept any presidential candidate being bound by a basket of conditions or prior understandings to elect a president." He asked, "How can any presidential candidate of dignity and awareness of his responsibilities accept to be stripped of his constitutional duties by imposing unconstitutional conditions upon him and to act as a soulless tool?" Berri responded to Al-Rahi, stating, "Between the basket of individuals that you proposed and the basket of ideas that I presented in the dialogue, I leave it to history to judge which is constitutional and which is more beneficial..."
History has proven that Berri was right, according to those close to him, who believe that "the parties that did not join him back then may now realize the repercussions of their refusal to accept the basket." Will Berri present the 2016 presidential basket in the 2022 elections, or will he propose a new basket containing agreements suitable for the upcoming phase? And will the other parties, whether supportive or opposing, accept it?
The answers to these questions are still unclear and require some "waiting." However, it is certain that Berri's presidential basket for the 2022 term begins with a call for consensus on a president. Concurrently, some within Berri's team support the idea of the Speaker proposing a basket stemming from his role in dialogue and understanding with all parliamentary blocs, given his constitutional and political position; he "talks" with everyone.
These individuals believe that it is unreasonable for a "challenge president" to emerge from any team; otherwise, he will face what Aoun faced. If there is no national solidarity with any president and a semi-agreement on the shape of the government and the upcoming phase, then "nothing can be achieved." While acknowledging that internal consensus requires international support, they consider it possible to complete the presidential entitlement through internal consensus backed by international support, similar to what happened in the demarcation file. This would earn us the congratulations of "the whole world," as we received for achieving the demarcation agreement. If we do not shed the cloak of "bravado" and "wear" the cloak of consensus and dialogue, according to them, a president will not be elected within a reasonable period.
However, it remains the decision of the Lebanese, who can agree on a president according to the same sources, especially in light of the Arab and international consensus on the necessity of electing a president within the constitutional timeframe. Most external parties are pressuring Lebanese factions and threatening "doom and gloom" if the presidential vacuum continues for too long.
