Hezbollah emerges from President Michel Aoun's term exhausted. It has endured much during this era and recently conducted a review of the past six years. The conclusion: it will not repeat it! The numerous wars waged by Aoun, particularly with Jibran Bassil against Nabih Berri, Saad Hariri, Samir Geagea, and Sleiman Frangieh, have fatigued Hezbollah, forcing it to stand as a defender and supporter of the presidency, whether right or wrong, which provoked a significant portion of both the Christian and Sunni communities against it. Had it not been for these wars, the term would have been more successful, and Bassil's or a candidate supported by the party’s path to the presidency would be much easier today.
Notably, Hezbollah has recently acted with clear rationality. It was insistent on ensuring a happy resolution for the demarcation file. It put in considerable effort to form the government and was particularly keen on that, while Michel Aoun and Najib Mikati rejected making concessions. The party seeks the upcoming phase to witness stability and calm, especially on the security front. However, the most important fact is that the party will not repeat the experience of President Michel Aoun.
Since the end of the parliamentary elections, Hezbollah has been keen on not officially endorsing any candidate, in a scenario completely different from its approach after the presidential vacancy at the end of President Michel Sleiman's term. The party today prefers that the next president not emerge from under its wing or arrive through resistance tanks, as former MP Nawaf Moussawi once announced regarding President Aoun. This implies that the party prefers the next president to be neither Jibran Bassil nor Sleiman Frangieh, aware that it has no capacity to bring either of them to power, and it acknowledges the opposition's presence and its ability to obstruct when necessary.
Should Bassil declare his candidacy, this development would not change anything except that it would ease the party's position with Frangieh. Two candidacies would cancel each other out, allowing Hezbollah to pivot toward a centrist candidate. However, who truly qualifies as "centrist"? An informed source suggests that potential candidates can be divided into two types of centrists: Bassil's centrists and Gemayel's centrists. Some, for example, point out that the National Free Movement leader's inclination toward former minister Ziyad Baroud classifies him among Bassil's centrists. Meanwhile, the Lebanese Forces leader's support for Army Commander Joseph Aoun places the latter among Gemayel's centrists.
However, these classifications are certainly not fixed, and presidential prospects include, alongside Aoun and Baroud, others such as former Minister Jihad Azour, who remains, for now, a centrist outside the classifications. Information indicates that Bassil was clear in his meetings with the Maronite Patriarch and the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, confirming his support for a centrist candidate without yet entering the naming game. After all this, one can confirm that the choice of a centrist president is the most likely today. The talk of an agreement with the Americans to bring Bassil to Baabda is merely selling illusions to boost "the Movement's" morale. In contrast, Frangieh's prospects are noticeably declining. As for Geagea, he, in due time, must be more humble in his conditions and better interpret Hezbollah's stance.
In conclusion, the "presidential recipe" has not matured, and there will be no president this year. The timing mentioned by sources and data ranges from late winter to spring. Until then, we wish you a warm winter…
