Two deadlines set by the Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon, Riad Salameh, and the Minister of Finance in the caretaker government, Youssef Khalil, have become the main concern for most Lebanese people. The first is at the beginning of December, when the customs dollar rate will be set at 15,000 Lebanese pounds, leading to a significant increase in prices for most imported goods. The second date is at the beginning of February, when the official exchange rate will be set at 15,000 instead of 1,500 pounds. This will require borrowers from banks to pay their dues according to the new exchange rate, knowing that a significant portion of them still have salaries that do not allow for this.
Since this announcement, many Lebanese have rushed to buy their essential needs such as clothing and electronics, especially since the end of this month coincides with major price discounts as part of what is known as "Black Friday."
Despite reassurances from several ministers that price increases will not affect all imported goods, but mainly those that have local alternatives, many traders have started raising prices without considering any exceptions, given the inability of regulatory authorities to oversee adequately, due to their limited numbers and capacities amid the multiple crises facing the country.
Economic researcher Dr. Mahmoud Jba'i estimates that "prices will generally rise between 20% and 50% after the new customs dollar rate is applied, depending on the fee percentage for each commodity." He notes "the fear that in the absence of oversight, price increases may not be limited to imported goods or goods that have a local alternative, and that prices for all items may rise without exception, especially since there has yet to be a clear list of items affected by the increase, which enhances randomness in pricing and impacts people's purchasing power."
Regarding the possibility that the increase in the customs dollar rate could lead to an additional rise in the actual exchange rate, which is approaching 40,000 pounds, Jba'i tells "Asharq Al-Awsat": "The Central Bank has its plans to face this wave of inflation through market intervention and possible circulars that may soon be issued to curb exchange rate increases and bring exchange rates closer together."
In addition to the official exchange rate and the actual market rate, authorities have created several other rates during the crisis, including the exchange rate based on the "Sayrafa" platform, which is affiliated with the central bank, as well as the exchange rate for withdrawals in pounds from dollar deposits in banks. This rate is expected to become 15,000 pounds in early February, forcing borrowers from banks in dollars before the crisis to pay their loans according to this rate, after having paid based on an exchange rate of 1,500 pounds per dollar.
Thousands of borrowers have turned to banks in recent days to try to repay their loans in full based on the current banking exchange rate, which is 8,000 pounds, in order to avoid having to make double repayments in about a month. While some banks agree to this provided that the loan is repaid in one installment via a bank check, other banks require repayment of loans in dollars.
While some borrowers have managed to secure checks for the required amounts since the remaining installments are not significant, many others fear for their future, especially those whose payments are still large and whose salaries have remained unchanged since 2019.
Despite warnings of an impending social explosion, Dr. Jba'i seems confident that this will not happen, stating: "Today we are better off than we were three years ago. There are two types of economy; one linked to the public sector, which constitutes 21% of GDP and the number of employees, and here the state's efforts should focus on assisting them, and another linked to the private sector, where local GDP growth can be discussed between 2% and 6%, supporting an economy that is operating normally."
