Lebanon

Background of the "Frangieh-Salam" Equation

Background of the

Following his denial of any political settlement involving his appointment as Prime Minister and the election of Marada Movement leader Sleiman Frangieh as President, prominent politician, diplomat, and judge Nawaf Salam told the Kuwaiti "Al-Jarida" that Lebanon does not need a political settlement based on previous norms, but rather a plan that includes a clear political, judicial, economic, and financial program. This plan should arise from a general consensus and a prevailing Lebanese decision aimed at putting the country back on the path to solution and restoring it to the map of international focus.

Salam states that the leaks suggesting he held meetings with the leader of the "Free Patriotic Movement," MP Gibran Bassil, and the discussions around the "Frangieh-Salam" equation, as proposed, are merely attempts to target him and draw him into narrow Lebanese calculations. He adds that the aim is to tarnish his reputation by entangling him in the "alleys" of strained relationships among political factions for several reasons. Firstly, to portray him as active and maneuvering for the position, despite his previous refusals due to a lack of capacity to implement reforms at that time. Even when he received numerous offers to run for elections and subsequently take up the premiership, he declined, as the issue for him diverges from such calculations.

Secondly, there is an attempt to provoke the environment of the national revolution or the Sunni community by suggesting that he met with Bassil, as if he is making prior concessions to secure the nomination, which is not an option for him, despite his insistence on meeting with all factions. Thirdly, this also aims to negatively affect his Arab and international relationships, undermining his position regarding the revolution or the necessary reforms for Lebanon, particularly showcasing a different image and methodology from the negotiation mechanisms that existed before what he terms "the October 17 Revolution," in reference to the widespread public movement in 2019.

It is clear that all these attempts have various motives, some from those aspiring to the premiership, and others aiming to thwart any attempts for renewal and reform. Moreover, the circulation of the "Frangieh-Salam" equation targets not only Salam but also aims to undermine Army Commander Joseph Aoun.

This comes as political backstage maneuverings in Lebanon aim to achieve both a presidential and governmental settlement, especially as Lebanese and international officials confirm that the need is not merely for the election of a new president, but also for the reestablishment of authority from electing the president to appointing the prime minister and his team and ministers, along with outlining a framework for the methodology of the new presidential term in enacting reforms and establishing a rescue plan.

While Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt work on a reconciliation initiative, each party is setting its conditions and determining its limits, similar to what Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah did in his recent speech, when he called for a consensual president and for dialogue "but on the condition that the resistance is not stabbed in the back." This has led to varied interpretations and numerous questions about whether Nasrallah genuinely seeks consensus while demanding internal and external guarantees not to undermine his weaponry and to avoid escalating policy against the party, or whether the conditions he sets, illustrated by electing a president who does not change his positions and is not afraid of embassy threats, indicate he wants to elect a president who is an ally similar to Michel Aoun and Emile Lahoud.

The equation put forth by Nasrallah requires more time to crystallize, especially as he launched an attack on "October 17," accusing the Americans of instigating it, which implicitly criticizes the Army Commander. His demand for guarantees suggests that he may agree to Joseph Aoun if there are assurances that the experience of Michel Suleiman will not be repeated.

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