There is nothing new in today's electoral session. The white paper remains a common denominator among the March 8 forces, specifically the "Shiite duo" and the "Free National Movement," with Salim Frangieh, the head of the "Maronite Bloc," still being the most serious candidate in this group. Meanwhile, the opposition forces are suffering from fragmentation in their options, which results in a dispersal of votes that prevents them from converging on a single choice. The candidacy of MP Michel Moawad is still holding firm, knowing that all indicators point to Army Commander Joseph Aoun as the actual candidate for some opposition groups. As for the leader of the "Progressive Socialist Party," Walid Jumblatt, he is waiting on the sidelines for the "corpses" of time-wasting candidacies to pass by, in anticipation of the serious nomination that will bring the cards to the table as the electoral conditions mature, thereby positioning him in the kitchen of the next president's making.
Only the "Free National Movement" has expressed a desire for a radical change in strategy to move away from the white paper and towards naming a specific candidate, in light of the pressures being exerted by some MPs, foremost among them the Deputy Speaker of Parliament Elias Bou Saab, who clearly stated, "I will vote for a candidate in Thursday's session, and I have not decided on the name yet, but I will not vote with a white paper. This is something we discussed within the bloc." However, for whom will the "bloc" vote? That remains the dilemma.
The candidacy of Gibran Bassil still hangs between jest and seriousness, between blackmail and examination. He is neither ready to withdraw nor able to present it. Thus, it is necessary to highlight some key points:
- Some of the old "Aounist" MPs continue to try to create an opening in the wall of Aounist nominations, especially since the possibility of Bassil's candidacy, or let's say his chances in the battle, are virtually non-existent, even if he convinces himself, in secrecy, that time could be in his favor. However, to this day, his battle resembles "zero," for many internal and external reasons, even if he attempts to suggest otherwise. For this reason, some MPs are trying to break this stalemate by preparing the ground for a battle for one of the Maronites of the "bloc." The candidates for this battle are few.
- Bassil did not hesitate in his recent television interview to cut off the possibility of nominating a member of the bloc in a statement that fell like cold water on the faces of the aspiring members of the "bloc." Nevertheless, MP Alain Aoun quickly confirmed that this matter was not discussed in the "bloc," deliberately leaving the door open despite Bassil's early attempts to close it.
- Bassil remains convinced that the white paper is the safe passage at this stage, although some close associates have tried to promote the possibility of moving to "Plan B" by nominating MP Nada Boustani, or rather putting her name in the box on Thursday, in an attempt to contain the internal objection under the premise that the head of the "bloc" is not imprisoning the nominations or keeping them in his pocket under his name. Although everyone is convinced that her candidacy is merely a joke, if it turns serious, it could explode the entire bloc.
In light of this, it was expected that the meeting of the bloc held last Tuesday would not be traditional in its discussions given the new data, particularly the desire of the opposing team to move the media debate to the round table, by asserting in front of Bassil that the "bloc's" options are not closed if the battle for the "movement" leader is impossible. It was natural for the MPs close to Bassil to take the defense front for his candidacy under the title that he has sacrificed and must fight his battle.
The discussion ended with the option of maintaining the white paper as long as the electoral conditions remain murky, given the "Shiite duo's" insistence on nominating Frangieh and the "forces'" insistence on nominating Moawad, along with the confusion surrounding the "change" movement, which means that the inclusion of any Aounist nomination on this list is tantamount to burning it rather than supporting it. Consequently, there is no point in endorsing any name at this stage, as it would be merely a folkloric step, and it is essential to wait.
Thus, the meeting concluded without Bassil taking the initiative to present his candidacy, nor putting any name on the table to be an alternative to the white paper, nor did among the dissenting MPs advance any candidacy. All that happened was the first attempt by some MPs to establish a state of open doors to all scenarios, not leaving the keys in Bassil's pocket... and that step has further developments!
