Until the beginning of the "maintenance work" on the relationship between "Hezbollah" and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) after the fractures it has experienced, the fate of this relationship remains a subject of interpretation and discussion, amidst conflicting assessments and speculations regarding its political future. While Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, expressed in his recent speech a desire to address the new conflicts with the FPM and maintain the alliance that has connected them since 2006, he simultaneously left the choice to the FPM based on the principle: "We do not withdraw our hand from a partner or friend unless they do so." He mentioned that he had previously assured MP Gibran Bassil, "If you feel embarrassed by the alliance with us, you are not obligated."
However, how did the FPM respond to this proposition? Will they gradually withdraw their hand from Hezbollah, or will they remain intertwined rather than conflicted? Those in the know strongly suspect that the FPM will not withdraw from the Mar Mikhael agreement, which is strategically irreplaceable in Mirna al-Chalouhi and the southern suburb alike. Therefore, despite the widening gaps, they believe it will not reach the point of separation according to some views. It is likely that the FPM will aim to leverage the current crisis in their bilateral relationship to attempt to adjust its terms and improve its position within it, without fully withdrawing from it or against it.
Sources within the FPM confirm that its leadership received Nasrallah's messages positively, "especially since they know his personal affection for General Michel Aoun and MP Bassil, which was clearly reflected during the closed-door sessions between him and them." These insiders assert that Bassil will not sever ties with Hezbollah; however, he will not necessarily endorse everything it does. "There are matters that sometimes necessitate raising the voice, as occurred after the party participated in an unconstitutional Cabinet session, which constituted a crossing of a red line that cannot be overlooked, especially when this transgression comes from an ally with whom the agreement was initially built on the basis of respecting partnership and balance."
One of the officials in the FPM points out that the differences with Hezbollah regarding some internal approaches are not recent, even though their latest episode appears to be the most acute. He recounts that General Aoun once addressed Sayyed Nasrallah during a disagreement with a sort of political jest, saying, "Do not love me more than President Nabih Berri... love me as much as him." The orange leader emphasizes that the FPM understands the uniqueness of the situation within the Shiite community and appreciates Hezbollah's efforts to maintain its unity and prevent any sedition. "However, it is necessary not to isolate a fundamental Christian component and attempt to eliminate it, as happened with the meeting held by some components of the caretaker government against the backdrop of the constitution and partnership."
Therefore, the FPM believes that there is an urgent need to develop the agreement without delay, and it is ready to start immediate dialogue with Hezbollah in this regard, according to sources that clarify that "the ball is now in Hezbollah's court, and if they decide to initiate dialogue, we will be ready within minutes." Enthusiasts within the FPM stress that the alliance is fundamentally based on a national idea and the conviction of its necessity, "and without that, it would not have endured all these years despite the challenges it faced. Thus, it is difficult for either party to easily relinquish it; however, this fact does not negate the need for a frank review of that experience and to build on the lessons learned to strengthen the alliance and enhance its resilience."
