Whenever there is a sudden drop in the dollar price in the parallel market, rumors circulate among the currency exchangers in Chtaura. Videos and news start surfacing about significant collapses among these exchangers, shouting, insults, and altercations, which a field visit soon reveals to be untrue. Last Tuesday, the same situation occurred. Someone filmed a video showing an employee at a currency exchange in Chtaura visibly angry. This video quickly spread across websites and news pages, discussing collapses among the exchangers due to the sudden drop in the dollar price. Upon investigating the matter on-site, it turned out to be merely an individual dispute between two workers at the same location, which was swiftly contained.
However, the rapid spread of these rumors demonstrates a desire among some to see actual collapses in the ranks of the exchangers. This is confirmed by comments accompanying the video posts, most of which blame the exchangers for the rise in the dollar price and its manipulation, venting their frustrations despite understanding that it is indeed linked to the crisis and collapse of the lira, though not its root cause.
On the other hand, a closer examination of the exchangers' methods and strategies to protect their capital reveals the difficulty of them being directly harmed by the instability of the dollar's exchange rate, whether it rises or falls. This is particularly true after the experiences they have accumulated over three years of financial instability in the market, which has allowed them to collectively build expertise in avoiding losses, augmented by individual experiences each exchanger has gained.
Here are the details of this expertise: every exchanger is already aware of the market size they operate in daily, and thus they only buy quantities they are sure can be sold. Consequently, the phrase "lock the price for me" has recently gained traction among exchangers. This phrase means that the exchanger who hypothetically buys a quantity of dollars from a smaller colleague at a specified price is obligated to that price, regardless of fluctuations in the exchange rate. Conversely, the buyer has also predetermined the selling price for their client, which is often an industrial or commercial institution, an oil importing company, or even a gas station owner, and sometimes the buyer is the Central Bank of Lebanon. This ensures that playing with dollars here is guaranteed profit, whether the exchanger is small or large. The party that loses in any substantial drop in the exchange rate is the one who bought the dollars at a higher price, which ultimately affects the consumer who will buy goods at the dollar's inflated price.
Thus, in sudden drops in the dollar price, only individuals or small traders are affected, rarely the larger ones who gamble with dollars relying on a rise against the Lebanese lira for additional profits in their purchases. For the exchangers, the equation is a WIN - WIN scenario, or "profit-profit" all along the way. They fundamentally do not hoard the dollars they buy but seek to sell them quickly, hence only those who aim to accumulate profits suffer losses.
Undoubtedly, the repeated circulars issued by the Central Bank of Lebanon have helped exchangers gain good experience in avoiding losses, especially after most of them understood the central bank's attempts to absorb the Lebanese lira from market circulation. Therefore, exchangers are keen on maintaining their capital in Lebanese lira, not in dollars. This way, when a sudden drop occurs in the dollar price, they can buy at the lower rate and then sell once it rises again.
Thus, these operations are repeated daily, with exchangers playing with the public's funds, earning profits through buying and selling while being careful not to touch their capital. There is also another factor that helps mitigate the risks of losses that exchangers may incur in case of rapid changes in the black dollar price. This factor is the network of cooperation established among the exchangers via WhatsApp groups or others, which allows coordination among members to understand market movement—both buying and selling—thus facilitating advice exchange and collaboration to meet market needs and execute transactions quickly, all while leaving a margin of flexibility for each exchanger to secure additional profits.
For exchangers, the surprise during the recent sudden drop in the dollar on Tuesday was in noticing the experience gained by individuals and small transaction owners, who are no longer intimidated by rapid declines in the dollar's price, nor do they feel tempted by rapid increases. Consequently, some exchangers in Chtaura mentioned that the drop accompanying the Central Bank's recent circular did not have strong repercussions on the market, noting for the first time that instead of rushing to sell in anticipation of the dollar's decline, people attempted to purchase it at the low price from the exchangers, who, of course, did not sell it to them. Their past experiences have led them to wait for the end of the repercussions from the circular that caused this decline, which experience also confirms will be followed by another rise.
