In a forgotten bag intended for leisure trips abroad, individuals gather their disappointments, fractures, and dreams they have tried in vain to mend on the land of their ancestors, and they travel to the far corners of the earth without thinking or planning a project to return. This is the reality of a nation where its people go to sleep with the low exchange rate of their crumbling currency and wake up to a presidential vacancy and a lack of hope for reaching a safe harbor.
Some say that the wave of migration Lebanon has been witnessing since the outbreak of the revolution on October 17, 2019, which intensified after the Beirut port explosion on August 4, 2020, is not new; it is classified as the third wave after two significant waves of migration: the first occurred in the late 19th century through the period of World War I (1865 - 1916), during which it is estimated that 330,000 people emigrated from Mount Lebanon. The second major wave was during the Lebanese Civil War (1975 - 1990), with the number of migrants during that period estimated at around 990,000. However, the circumstances leading to the migration of Lebanese people then are vastly different from today's reasons. Those who lived through the Civil War in the 1970s testify that the economic hardship that plagued the country then does not compare to the current crisis, described by specialists as the largest financial, economic, and banking crisis Lebanon has faced in its history since the famine of World War I.
In terms of numbers and statistics, the data tells a different story. Researcher at the International Information Center, Mohammad Shamseddine, clarifies through "Al-Markazia" that the number of travelers and migrants from Lebanon reached 55,500 people by the end of October 2022, while statistics for 2021 recorded an exit of 80,000, compared to 17,721 people in 2020. It was also shown that the number of Lebanese who migrated and traveled from Lebanon during the years 2018-2021 totaled 195,433. The figures for the last month of 2022 are not expected to exceed a critical threshold and will not even approach last year's numbers. Shamseddine states, "On the contrary, all indicators show a decline in the rate of migration for travel abroad due to the global economic crisis, following the repercussions of the Ukrainian war and the lack of job opportunities in Europe."
It may be said that "the misfortunes of one nation can be the benefits to another," but it is certain that the decline is not due to a lack of desire. "The desire to leave the country exists due to a lack of job opportunities, especially among newly graduated students. However, the paradox is that the migration of educated youth and specialists limits the unemployment rate in Lebanon, and their staying would mean an increase in that rate."
The danger of the third wave of migration is that about 77% are considering migration or seeking it, according to a study by the Crisis Observatory at the American University, exceeding any rate in the Arab youth category, particularly in countries experiencing armed conflicts. This relates to the Lebanese mentality and the history of its people, marked by migration since World War I. The second danger is the increase in the emigration of specialists working in the medical fields, as well as in education and engineering, with the latest waves involving the migration of lawyers and judges.
From the air to the sea, Lebanon has witnessed waves of illegal migration, most of which ended in disasters, with boats sinking carrying children, the elderly, and youth. According to United Nations figures, the number of those attempting to leave Lebanon by sea illegally has reached around 1,600 people, an increase of 300 over the years 2019 and 2021, while about 41% of youth feel that their only chance is to seek opportunities abroad.
In this context, Shamseddine points out that the rising rate of travel and migration among young age groups and degree holders does not pose a danger to the Lebanese society and its structure, as it concurrently addresses the problem of unemployment in Lebanon, which has reached 38%, according to a study by the International Information Center. However, in the long term, there is certainly a risk. He notes that the increasing numbers of Lebanese emigrants and those leaving are simply seeking to improve their difficult living conditions or to secure work opportunities that have become impossible in their homeland, amid the ongoing economic crisis and declining purchasing power among the majority due to the collapse of the Lebanese pound against foreign currencies.
Based on the developments in global economic conditions due to the war in Ukraine and the lack of a clear outlook on the political, economic, and financial crises in Lebanon, Shamseddine refuses to provide a statistical or even an estimated figure for the number of migrants and travelers. "If the war in Ukraine ends, and the global economy recovers, with global labor markets regaining their strength, then the numbers for migration and travelers will rise; if Lebanese MPs manage to elect a president and sign with the International Monetary Fund, this means the migration rate will also decline. However, if neither occurs, it means migration will diminish abroad and increase domestically in Lebanon."
Thus, only changes will dictate the direction of the third wave of migration from Lebanon. "However, what can be confirmed is that the third wave of migration under the current situation poses a long-term risk, whereas in the short term, it is positive as it provides job opportunities for Lebanese people abroad and reduces the migration rate internally," concludes Shamseddine.
