Lebanon is set to regain its political and judicial activity this week, following nearly three weeks of disruptions due to holidays. Changes in the presidential file are expected on multiple fronts, particularly on Tuesday, when the "Free Patriotic Movement" is anticipated to endorse a candidate to navigate this new phase after its disagreements with Hezbollah and its decision to refrain from casting blank votes. Additionally, Thursday is expected to witness the 11th election session, likely convened by the Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri within hours.
**Stagnation of Plan "B"**
While there will be some movement in the stagnant presidential matter this week, it does not imply significant breakthroughs leading to a resolution. Information suggests the file may head towards further complexities, especially with the failure of the opposition's "Plan B," which was supposed to be adopted by the end of this month.
Informed sources tell "Al-Diyar" that the "Lebanese Forces" could not convince Sunni MPs aligned with a "sovereignty" mindset, as well as "Change" MPs close to this stance, to adopt a new name to rally votes around, raising the total votes for the candidate toward 50 or 60. This would put pressure on the opposing team. The sources clarify that "there are leaders in the 'Forces' and 'Phalanges' questioning the utility of switching to a new name other than Maouad if the outcomes wouldn't differ significantly from his, especially since they are in a much stronger position than the opposing team and have a well-known candidate to vote for; hence, it is Hezbollah and its allies that should be worried and seek options to alleviate their embarrassment."
Moreover, it does not seem the "Shiite duo" is ready to abandon the option of blank voting anytime soon; they remain convinced that there is no exit from the crisis except through an internal settlement, given the indifference of foreign powers toward the Lebanese situation. The political aide to the Speaker of Parliament, MP Ali Hassan Khalil, expressed this sentiment yesterday, asserting that "some hot-headed individuals persist in rejecting any attempts for an internal solution."
According to available information, transitioning to vote for "Marda Movement" leader Sleiman Frangieh faces numerous obstacles, primarily the lack of guarantees for his election to the Baabda Palace, and Hezbollah does not wish to engage in a battle likely to fail in the absence of necessary Christian support for Frangieh's election. The information adds that all attempts to convince Gebran Bassil of this have failed, and the convergence of Hezbollah and Samir Geagea on a single presidential candidate seems to be next to impossible.
**Details of Plan "B":**
Sources from the "Forces" informed "Al-Liwaa" that, as of yesterday, there is no new development regarding the presidential file, and the discussions about "Plan B" are inaccurate and differ from what is being circulated. They added, "In principle, matters should take shape by the end of this month." The sources revealed that "Plan B" is not entirely confidential; they had already announced its outlines: if we cannot secure 60 votes or more for MP Michel Moawad, we, along with Moawad and other opposition MPs, will search for a candidate with the criteria of reform and sovereignty, eligible for election.
If we cannot unify the opposition behind another candidate, we will remain committed to Moawad indefinitely. The opposing team must announce their candidate and participate in the voting session to elect a president. The sources continued: "Even if we differ on the characteristics of the sovereign candidate, which is a real issue, we must adhere to the mechanisms of the presidential elections and attend the sessions, debating and negotiating in Parliament until we agree on an acceptable candidate."
Informed sources told "Al-Joumhouria" that recent communications have yet to yield any new outcomes that can provide a basis for resolving the current standoff between MPs supporting MP Michel Moawad and those opting for blank votes, alongside the varying names that change from one session to another.
