The widespread chaos in various aspects of Lebanon is attracting external attention. Many international and regional powers see the implications of Lebanese disorder as potentially extending beyond its borders. Therefore, it is essential to contain it within limits, alongside efforts to halt the ongoing collapse. So far, there is no clear international vision on how to achieve this, nor detailed indicators suggesting an imminent regional and international settlement that would reflect on the internal scene.
As for the quadruple meeting, some remain unconvinced of the existence of this kind of external interest in the internal reality, believing that everything being prepared will not lead to swift results. However, there are continuous communications among regional and international powers regarding scheduling the quadruple meeting in Paris, which will include the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. According to the information, discussions are underway to set this meeting for the first week of February next year. In addition to the quadruple meeting, there will be bilateral meetings among various representatives of these countries to discuss the Lebanese file in detail and how to reach a settlement that will pull the country out of the crisis. Sources add that through communication between these countries, it has been agreed that each country will prepare a paper containing a political proposal to resolve the crisis, as well as address non-political financial and economic issues.
### A Shared Vision
While diplomatic sources previously indicated that the meeting would focus on discussing humanitarian aid and how to resume it, other sources emphasize that the communication has led to the necessity of discussing political issues, particularly reaching a settlement formula that results in electing a president and forming a new government. These sources point out that each country will provide its perspective and interpretation of the situation. Diplomatic sources describe this meeting as highly significant, despite the lack of clarity regarding the level of representation, as it will be the first of its kind during this phase to discuss all the political details of the Lebanese crisis, potentially resulting in an initiative presented to Lebanese officials.
Sources indicate that the meeting might last for more than a day or two, determined by the negotiation mechanisms and common points reached by the attending parties. There is a insistence on the necessity of coming up with a shared vision, as failing to agree on this shared vision would imply that the crisis would be prolonged and have dangerous implications. According to what diplomatic sources perceive, Lebanon has no way out of the current crisis except through the convergence of interests among these powers, which could successfully place Lebanon on the path to a presidential settlement. Without this, the situation will trend towards further collapses, which may lead to extensive and widespread risks, including security tensions or social chaos.
### Divergent Estimates
Since the idea of the quadruple meeting was proposed, estimates regarding it have varied, and the disparity remains. Some believe the initiative will not be serious, basing their view on the absence of a definitive date for its holding. Initially, it was leaked that the meeting would take place in mid-January, then later a report suggested it would occur at the end of the month, while current information indicates a possibility of it being held in the first week of February.
The fundamental factor remains confirming the date first, and secondly, what the meeting could achieve in terms of common points. Here, it cannot be overlooked that some external forces do not believe the Lebanese factions are ready to enter a settlement process, yet the current developments necessitate preparing the groundwork for when the moment is right.
