In supporting the candidacy of former Deputy Sleiman Frangieh, the Shiite duo has raised the democracy of "half plus one," as Deputy Ali Hassan Khalil announced that "if Frangieh gathers 65 votes without the two Christian blocs, we will proceed with him. Our priority is consensus, but when the battle becomes a matter of numbers, each party acts in its own interest." Thus, the election of the president might resemble the election of Nabih Berri as Speaker of the Parliament (for a seventh term) and Elias Bou Saab as his deputy with 65 votes... This was also announced by Frangieh himself after his visit to the Patriarchal Headquarters, where he stated, "I will accept to be president by half plus one. My grandfather reached the presidency this way, as stipulated in the constitution, and we cannot choose how to apply it."
Several questions remain unanswered, including: Does this position come as part of pressure on the Free Patriotic Movement to open the door for other options... And can a Maronite president be elected without Christian votes, which implies the collapse of the strong president theory that brought President Michel Aoun to the top position? What about the constitutional agreement that President Berri has always championed – is there both summer and winter under the same parliamentary dome?
A political source, who is closely following the situation, downplayed the possibility of applying "half plus one" to the presidential entitlement, indicating, through the "Akhbar Al-Youm" agency, a visible tug-of-war between the Shiite duo on one side and Deputy Gibran Basil on the other. In response to a question, the source explained that the Shiite duo is exerting all pressure on Basil to make him retract his stance to proceed with Frangieh’s option, thus the message directed to Basil here is that "the party can secure 65 votes”; however, in reality, this number cannot be obtained without votes from the "Strong Lebanon" bloc deputies. In other words, all this intimidation aims to bring Basil back to "the house of obedience."
Thus, the source considered that we are facing a confrontation on the March 8 front, where this team must reach the conviction of the "other option," especially after Basil’s meeting with a Hezbollah delegation (the political aide to Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, Hussein Khalil, and the head of the coordination and liaison unit in Hezbollah, Wafiq Safa) and the press conference held yesterday.
While reiterating that it is time for Hezbollah to reconsider its presidential stance since Basil does not accept Frangieh, the same source believed that the conditions are ripe for beginning a serious search for other presidential options, especially after doors were closed before Frangieh specifically on the Christian level. The source assumes that raising the ceilings might be positive as all goals became clear and can be discussed from there.
What could constitute a breach? The source stated: Practically, everyone is waiting for some development, whether from street pressures, soaring dollar rates, or political repercussions on the street, considering that the party, in light of Basil's rigidity and the impossibility of achieving any Christian breakthrough, could tell Frangieh "the burden is upon me; I have delivered," while Basil has begun to consider the names put forth by the opposition team.
Here, the following source clarified that Basil removed the name of former Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt’s candidate Army Commander Joseph Aoun from the list, as the assault on him was as severe as the attack on Frangieh. However, it can be said that Frangieh’s card has been burned, unlike Aoun's card, as many parties have not yet made their position clear, while there is division among the sovereignty, change, and opposition forces regarding the names of Jehadi Azour and Salah Hnein (from the Jumblatt list), and searching for other options may find its way soon.
