The head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gibran Bassil, is determined to search for a third candidate for the presidency. He is fiercely battling day by day against the head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh, and the Army Commander, Joseph Aoun. He described the former as the candidate wanted by the political system, which justifies his opposition to him. He previously labeled the latter as the "coup leader" exercised against the presidency of Michel Aoun. However, he has been more vocal in his accusations against Aoun, charging him with corruption. When Bassil claims that the Army Commander acts at will with millions in secret allocations and the army's properties, and jumps over public accounting law, it indicates an escalation in the battle he is waging against Aoun, which will continue as long as he feels that Aoun's chances of reaching the presidency are increasing.
Bassil's political problem with Franjieh seems understood. He fears being marginalized if Franjieh is elected, who will have a primary backing from the political forces that have aligned with him since the Taif Agreement in 1990. Bassil refuses to change his stance towards the head of the Marada Movement despite all the guarantees Hezbollah has promised to provide, especially since the party's Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, clearly told Bassil during their meeting months ago: "I will be your guarantee for electing Franjieh." According to sources following that meeting, Nasrallah struck his chest, but Bassil continued to refuse. Bassil's opposition to Franjieh is based on the opposition of the Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party, and other independent forces, as well as Gulf opposition to his presidency. Therefore, he has expressed his readiness to enter a new understanding with Hezbollah or other forces. The understanding referred to here would involve agreeing on a candidate who is not confrontational from Bassil's perspective.
As for Bassil's fight with the Army Commander, it carries a lot of oddities, especially since Joseph Aoun is theoretically affiliated with President Michel Aoun. Secondly, Bassil could potentially create a political and Christian base for him; however, Bassil's calculations appear different, involving personal matters and his desire to remain a key figure in Christian leadership. He believes that although Joseph Aoun may not pose a serious threat in a deep sense, he has no capability to influence his decisions. Bassil's problem concerns Aoun's performance and personality, which are regaining trust both domestically and internationally; he is capable of playing a significant role based on the symbolism of the military uniform and his relationship with the founder of the Free Patriotic Movement, along with his good performance throughout his command of the army.
It is clear that Bassil will seek to engage in a direct battle against the Army Commander, relying on the attacks he has launched against him. He also aims to target some members of his bloc who prefer to back the Army Commander, especially since some calculations suggest that if Franjieh's candidacy is taken seriously, he could obtain around 5 votes from the Strong Lebanon bloc and perhaps more, while Joseph Aoun could gather over 10 votes, despite Bassil's opposition to voting for him. This concern reflects the danger that the head of the Free Patriotic Movement senses.
What Bassil aspires to is to obtain a veto from Hezbollah on the name of the Army Commander, but this has not yet happened. Regarding his allusion to potentially running for the presidency again, some say that Bassil has multiple considerations that could place Lebanon on a path of settlement, through which he could ingratiate himself into the process, positioning himself as a candidate not necessarily to reach the presidency but perhaps as the sole player in choosing the president and able to impose his conditions. Others indicate that the man mentioned to some close associates that the month of March will witness significant changes, potentially leading to a different presidential path related to his own candidacy for the presidency.
