More than three months have passed since the presidential vacancy, and the "file" remains in a "vicious circle," as if the country is in perfect health, while a major collapse is sweeping through all sectors without exception, warning of an imminent crash. The initiative from the Progressive Socialist Party and the "Democratic Gathering" came to revive the "stalled wheels." Walid Jumblatt launched his initiative on the premise that the dire situations in the country cannot afford any more wasted time, especially since presidential matters have reached a dead end, where neither the white paper is a correct option, nor the vote for MP Michel Mouawad has yielded the desired results. Consequently, the idea emerged to seek a consensus candidate, which Jumblatt had initially called a "non-challenging candidate," showcasing various names proposed as gateways to finding this president.
Jumblatt, who started his movement from a meeting with Hezbollah, and MP Gibran Bassil, then sent an envoy to the Lebanese Forces, and also met with Lebanese Phalange Party leader Sami Gemayel, culminating in a visit from Democratic Gathering leader Taymour Jumblatt to Bkerke, followed by a meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, presented a range of names for the presidency without committing to one over the others, even if Army Commander Joseph Aoun's name was the most frequently mentioned among them.
After the visit to Bkerke, stemming from the desire to ascertain Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rahi’s opinion since he is fundamentally concerned with this entitlement due to his spiritual and national position, it became clear that the Army Commander's candidacy is gaining momentum. Will the Army Commander resolve the stalled presidential labor crisis?
Sources following the presidential file indicated to the "Anbaa" electronic newspaper that "things are still at a standstill, but the new development is the end of MP Michel Mouawad's chances following Jumblatt's initiative, as the presidential file has taken a different course, where the competition is now confined to two names: former Minister Sleiman Frangieh, head of the Marada Movement, and Army Commander Joseph Aoun."
Even though "the Progressive Socialist Party's endeavor primarily centers around the Army Commander’s name, as evidenced by the supportive positions of various blocs," the sources also noted that "Frangieh's name remains a significant contender."
The sources emphasized the "importance of the Democratic Gathering's role" in this context, considering it "the pivotal point and everyone needs its approval," while raising the "Christian issue," as both the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement will not support Frangieh no matter the cost. However, regarding Joseph Aoun, the Free Patriotic Movement will never support him as they have placed a public "veto" against him. Conversely, the Lebanese Forces' position is somewhat ambiguous, questioning the purpose of stating that if a majority of 86 deputies were secured to amend the constitution to elect General Aoun, they would not object and would vote for him.
The sources questioned, "Is Berri prepared to amend the constitution?" According to the information from the sources, "so far, nothing indicates that Berri is willing to go with the constitutional amendment option." They also pointed out that "the current circumstances do not resemble those during the election of President Michel Sleiman, where the events of May 7 and then the Doha Agreement were the drivers." Yet, they considered that "what we are currently experiencing in terms of collapse and successive crises is even more challenging than the events of May 7," stating that "the ship is sinking, and everything is possible."
So, will Berri change his position regarding amending the constitution? The sources link this to "the absence of an issue for Hezbollah with Joseph Aoun," but they questioned: "Will Hezbollah easily back down from Sleiman Frangieh?" They answered that "Hezbollah will only retreat at a price, and it is dealing with Frangieh's nomination in exactly the same way it dealt with President Emile Lahoud's extension."
In light of this, the sources confirmed that "all possibilities remain open and conceivable," and they anticipated "an increase in the Army Commander's prospects should a dramatic development change the entire scene," not excluding the emergence of a new name that had not been circulated before.
However, the sources pointed out two significant developments following the Army Commander's name rising to the top of the presidential candidates list: former Minister Sleiman Frangieh's visit to the patriarchal seat and the announcement of his presidential program from Bkerke, and the unprecedented attack by Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Gibran Bassil on the Army Commander. The sources considered that "there’s something both individuals sensed concerning the seriousness of Joseph Aoun’s arrival at the presidency."
Yet all this does not imply that a resolution is close; the prevailing situation remains murky in the political scene, and it appears that clarity will not emerge soon!
