As expected, no white smoke emerged from the French Foreign Ministry, which hosted the five-party meeting (French-American-Saudi-Egyptian-Qatari) dedicated to Lebanon yesterday afternoon (Monday). The main issue the Lebanese wanted to address was the means and ways available to urge the Lebanese political class to work according to a comprehensive "package" aimed at filling institutional voids, electing a new president, and reaching an agreement on a new government tasked with accelerating the required reforms from the Lebanese authorities, which are known to all, as a step to halt the multi-faceted collapse and provide the groundwork to start pulling Lebanon from the abyss it has been driven into.
Prior to the meeting, Paris, through its active diplomacy regarding the Lebanese file, had clarified what was required from the meeting, focusing on three key elements. The first emphasized that its actions are not "isolated," but rather in coordination with the key players directly involved in the Lebanese file. Specifically, that it is acting on behalf of the European Union, with support from the other three parties, particularly from the Saudi Kingdom. This was conveyed to Minister Catherine Colonna during her visit to Riyadh and her meetings with senior officials in the Kingdom.
The second focuses on examining the effective motivational and non-motivational means that could break the deadlock in the parliament, which has been ongoing for more than three months. In other words, clarifying whether there is a necessity and possibility to revisit the scenario that preceded the formation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati's government when the discourse centered on "disruption." At that time, France took steps to impose sanctions on several Lebanese politicians whose identities were not disclosed, while the European Union was also ready to impose "repressive" measures at the collective level.
The third element reaffirms the fundamental principles on which the five parties (Arab and international) operate, namely preserving Lebanon's sovereignty, independence, and openness to the Arab and international surroundings, as well as responding to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund as a gateway to financial and economic rescue. Of course, it was expected that the participants would refrain from entering the game of names since electing the next president is exclusively the prerogative of the Lebanese Parliament and not any other entity. However, they simultaneously want a president who "unites" the Lebanese rather than divides them, and that the warring political parties accept to work with him instead of hindering his efforts. In other words, it was anticipated that they would push for a "consensual" president who carries a reform program and enjoys both internal and external acceptance.
French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, in her remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat last Thursday, outlined a "roadmap" to save Lebanon from what she described as a "failed system," stating that the solution in Lebanon hinges on electing a president who unites, having a government that works for the country's benefit, and placing the required reforms into action, enabling the International Monetary Fund to intervene. She added that France "will spare no effort" in assisting Lebanon. A senior political source had previously told Asharq Al-Awsat, "If Paris does not care about the Lebanese situation, who will?"
It remains that no one expected the five-party meeting to issue decisions; rather, the main expectation was for "recommendations." This is due to two reasons: the low level of representation and that the five-party group does not have legal status as an entity or group, thus anything it produces is only binding on the five parties. Contrary to previous leaks regarding the timing of the meeting, the five parties only dedicated yesterday afternoon to consulting on the Lebanese situation. However, the significance of the meeting lies in its capacity to mobilize international attention, which is preoccupied with the Russian war in Ukraine and other pressing issues, to focus on the Lebanese situation.
Diplomatic sources in Paris considered that the "tone" of the discussions was "positive," characterized by a lack of criticism directed at specific parties concerning the institutional void and deteriorating conditions, both domestically and abroad. Moreover, the issue of discussing the presidency from the angle of the qualities or identity of the president was not raised in this manner, nor was there any mention of external parties, particularly Iran, concerning its role in the Lebanese political game, reflecting a "reconciliatory" tone. This may indicate a desire to avoid severing communications with it, despite the tension between it and the West in general. This approach contrasts with the systematic attack launched by Colonna against Iran regarding its destabilizing role in Lebanon.
Conversely, there was a focus on the urgent need to support Lebanon "because it is on the brink of collapse" if assistance is not provided quickly, emphasizing the necessity to exit the dark tunnel it is traversing. Notably, according to this source, the attendees agreed that no financial support is anticipated for Lebanon, such as providing a financial deposit to be placed in the central bank to revive the deteriorating Lebanese pound in the face of the dollar, other than the humanitarian and social aid that may fall under the support fund launched by Paris and Riyadh, while agreeing on the freedom of each party to provide the aid it deems appropriate.
It is no secret that there is a complex interplay between the intricacies of the internal political situation in Lebanon and its external ramifications. The preemptive stance expressed by Hezbollah, through Central Council member Sheikh Nabil Kaouk stating, the day before yesterday, that Lebanon "cannot bear external impositions, neither presidential nor otherwise," was also on the minds of the attendees. He added that "the current equation does not allow for anyone from regional or international powers to impose and enforce a president of the republic."
In the same context, the party's representative, Mohammad Fadlallah, stated, "The outside cannot impose any name on us, and we want this entitlement to remain Lebanese national. Thus, even if all the countries of the world convened to impose a name on the Lebanese, they would not be able to do so. If the majority of the parliament agrees on a national name, it can impose it internally and externally and bring it to the presidency." However, Iran was notably the biggest absentee from yesterday's meeting. It is no secret that it has a role to play in the presidential entitlement through Hezbollah. Therefore, the tension in its relations with the West in general, including France, which has previously tried to keep the door of communication with Tehran open, represents one of the weaknesses of the mentioned meeting. Initially, a statement from the five parties was expected to be issued last evening, but it was delayed due to differences regarding several details.
