Lebanon, following the Saudi-Iranian agreement under the auspices of China, is counting on any meetings held abroad concerning it, the latest being a bilateral meeting on Friday in the French capital between representatives from France and Saudi Arabia to continue discussions on the Lebanese issue. This reliance stems from the persistent political crisis and the ongoing presidential vacancy since October 31, along with the unprecedented economic and financial crisis that Lebanon is experiencing, which is poised for further deterioration without any internal solutions. Is there any positive impact from the meetings held abroad or those that will be conducted later on the internal Lebanese situation?
In this context, informed political sources believe that the Paris bilateral meeting between France and Saudi Arabia is a continuation of what was discussed in the pentagonal meeting that included representatives from the US, Qatar, and Egypt, aimed at clarifying certain points especially after recent developments, namely the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement. The meeting followed up consultations regarding the Lebanese file, particularly since the attendees are closely connected to the Lebanese situation and are well-acquainted with Lebanese officials. It was revealed that the Paris meeting will include Iran at a later stage, especially after the recent "Beijing Agreement" and the gradual implementation of its terms over the next two months.
The sources emphasized that the Paris meeting is a regular coordination meeting between the French and Saudis. After the pentagonal meeting, the concerned countries agreed to hold regular bilateral, or tri-partite meetings whenever there is a need to continue consultations. The French and Saudi representatives wish to activate the Franco-Saudi financial fund, which was previously agreed upon through what is referred to as the "Macron-Salman Mechanism," adopted during French President Emmanuel Macron's recent visit to Saudi Arabia, aimed at assisting the Lebanese people, particularly in light of the crushing economic and financial crisis facing them. Hence, they decided to hold a bilateral meeting for coordination.
As per the same sources, it has been decided that the aid and funds will go directly to the Lebanese people, 80% of whom now live below the poverty line, without going through the political class that has failed to deliver it to them in previous times through conferences held to support Lebanon such as "Paris 1," "Paris 2," "Paris 3," and the "Cedar Conference" among others. While it was required to establish a clear mechanism for spending the billions of dollars provided by these conferences, Lebanese officials have not prepared any plan for that. Their negligence prompted France and other donor countries to subsequently lose trust in them, leading to a halt in aid to the Lebanese state. Instead, a different method was adopted to deliver aid directly to the population through non-governmental organizations and some entities. However, this step did not succeed as well as desired, as acknowledged by some donor countries themselves.
Thus, the Franco-Saudi meeting took on a humanitarian character, and the attendees agreed to coordinate the activation of the Franco-Saudi fund, according to a mechanism for providing humanitarian aid to the Lebanese people. However, the disagreement between the two countries on how to address the political crisis in Lebanon remains. The Saudis, despite their recent agreement with Iran, are still insisting on a comprehensive package for the forthcoming phase and do not appear to be in a hurry to obtain it. This process would commence with the election of a president, followed by an agreement on a prime minister and the number of ministers, ensuring that there would be no blocking third to serve this faction or hinder that one, along with the ministerial statement, etc. Meanwhile, the French prefer to handle each issue separately, beginning with the election of the president, then discussing the premiership and its formation and subsequent matters.
Regarding the qualifications for the presidency, both the French and Saudis agree not to enter into the bazaar of names and nominations. They concur on the specifications that the next president of Lebanon should possess, which have been previously discussed in the tri-partite meeting in Washington, as well as in the pentagonal meeting in Paris. Each ties their financial support for Lebanon to the respect of these specifications by the parliamentary blocs. The Lebanese people can elect whomever they want as president, but if they elect someone who does not meet these specifications, there will be no assistance. This means that the presence of these specifications in the next president, whom the Lebanese deputies are to elect, will facilitate the arrival of aid to the Lebanese people, whereas the absence of these specifications could halt it. These specifications lead to reforms that, alongside electing a president, can rescue Lebanon from its crisis. Hence, if the situation remains as it currently is—"zero reforms"—despite previous calls and appeals from abroad since the "Cedar" Conference regarding the urgent need for structural reforms, there will be no aid for the Lebanese people.
Nonetheless, the same sources find that the failure of the ruling authority to implement reforms does not negatively impact the political class itself as much as it affects the Lebanese people. Consequently, the requirement of the equation "no aid with a president who does not meet the specifications and no reforms" is not the Lebanese people's fault, who have been living in poverty and need in recent years due to the erroneous policies of successive governments. This necessitates a reconsideration of such a decision that has negative repercussions on the situation of Lebanese citizens suffering from the intense economic, financial, and living crisis.
